000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162137 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 16 2020

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America, 
Colombia, and Within 750 nm of Ecuador

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Northerly gale force are funneling through the Chivela Pass and 
into the Tehuantepec region. These gale force winds are forecast 
to reach near storm force early Wed as the pressure gradient 
tightens across the area between tropical cyclone Iota and high 
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Wave heights are forecast to
build to the range of 13 to 18 ft by early Wed. Wave heights 
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to build to a 
very large range of 20-22 ft ft by late Wed night.Please, read 
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica to 
the coast at 08N83W and continues northwestward to 14N92W and 
southwestward to 10N98W, then northwestward to 14N104W to low 
pressure near 14N108W 1009 mb and to 11N114W to low pressure 
near 11N119W 1010 mb to 10N130W and to 09N135W, where overnight 
scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins and continues to
beyond the area at 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 
107W-111W and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 138W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the 
trough between 83W-86W and within 30 nm south of the trough
between 103W-106W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Please, see the Special Features section above for details.

A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja
California producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. Seas are 
in the 5-7 ft range S of Punta Eugenia, and 7-9 ft N of Punta 
Eugenia. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across 
the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Tue, with seas up to 10 or 
11 ft tonight, subsiding to 8 to 9 ft on Tue. 

Observations show moderate to fresh NW across the Gulf of 
California, particularly north of 25N over the central part of 
Gulf where isolated wind bars of 25 kt were also noted. Moderate 
to fresh NW winds will persist over the north and central parts 
of the Gulf of California or Sea of Cortez through the morning 
hours. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most 
of the Gulf beginning on Mon as the ridge over the offshore 
waters of Baja California weakens. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected 

Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted off Panama per recent 
scatterometer data, with seas of 7-8 ft. These marine conditions
will persist through Tue, as Hurricane Iota in the SW Caribbean 
approaches Central America. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW 
winds are noted south of the monsoon trough east of 100W, with 
mainly gentle W-NW winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 
in the 5-7 ft range. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region 
will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador this afternoon. This swell event will likely persist 
most of the work-week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of 
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the 
coast of southern Mexico have become a little better organized 
overnight. Environment conditions, however, are only marginally 
conducive, and any additional development of this system is 
expected to be slow to occur over the next few days. The 
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or 
northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.  Conditions are 
expected to become unfavorable for further development around 
midweek. Currently, the low has a low chance of tropical cyclone 
formation in the next 48 hours, and a low chance in the next 5 
days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A ridge dominates the waters north of 16N W of 110W. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge 
W of 120W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range within this area based 
on overnight altimeter data. The overnight ASCAT data pass 
depicted a 1010 mb low near 11N119W. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the low in the N quadrant and 
within 60 nm of the low in the S semicircle. High pressure to 
its north will weaken through Tue as a cold front just northwest 
of the area moves into the northwest part of the area. The 
front will reach a position from near 32N131W to 27N135W and to 
26N140W early Tue, then begin to dissipate from near 32N125W to 
26N132W, and dissipate as a stationary front from there to near 
23N140W. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of 
the front over the NW waters this afternoon and evening. Large 
NW swell, producing wave heights in the range of 8-12 ft, will 
follow in behind the front.

$$
Torres/Aguirre