000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160942 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Northerly winds are funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Tehuantepec region today, reaching gale force winds this Monday morning. Seas are forecast to build to 10-16 ft by Mon evening. Gale conditions will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Fri, with near storm force winds Wed and Thu as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between tropical cyclone Iota and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights of 20-22 ft are forecast for mid-week with the strongest winds. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 1009 mb low pressure located near 14N106.6W to a second low near 11N114W to 09N131W. The ITCZ continues from 09N131W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is noted from 10N to 15N between 104W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 120W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see Special Features section for details. A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range S of Punta Eugenia, and 7-9 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Tue, with seas up to 10 or 11 ft tonight, subsiding to 8 to 9 ft on Tue. Observations show moderate to fresh NW across the Gulf of California, particularly north of 25N over the central part of Gulf where isolated wind bars of 25 kt were also noted. Moderate to fresh NW winds will persist over the north and central parts of the Gulf of California or Sea of Cortez through the morning hours. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most of the Gulf beginning on Mon as the ridge over the offshore waters of Baja California weakens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted off Panama per recent scatterometer data, with seas of 7-8 ft. These marine conditions will persist through Tue, as Hurricane Iota in the SW Caribbean approaches Central America. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough east of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Mon. This swell event will likely persist most of the work-week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive for development over the next couple of days or so as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. Thereafter, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of this week. Currently, the low has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a low chance in the next 5 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A ridge dominates the waters north of 16N W of 110W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge W of 120W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range within this area based on altimeter data. ASCAT data shows a 1014 mb near 11N119W with scattered moderate convection extending 160 nm SE of low pressure. The ridge to the north will weaken early this week ahead of a cold front approaching the northwest part of the area late today. The front will move southeast from 27N137W to 28N140W Tue, then begin to weaken into Wed. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front over the NW waters this afternoon and evening. Large NW swell, with seas up to 11-12 ft, will accompany the front. Long period NW swell will dominate most of the forecast waters W of 120W through Mon while long period SW will continue to propagate across the waters E of 120W. $$ Torres