000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Nov 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Northerly winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass into the Tehuantepec region this evening, reaching gale force tonight into Monday morning. Seas are forecast to build to 10-16 by Mon morning. Gale conditions are expected to persist in the Tehuantepec region through Fri, with near storm force winds Wed and Thu as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between tropical cyclone Iota and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Sea heights of 20-22 ft are forecast with the strongest winds. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 1009 mb low pressure located near 13.5N105.5W to 11N120W to 10N131W. The ITCZ continues from 10N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 102W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to 12N between 120W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see Special Features section for details. A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range S of Punta Eugenia, and 7-10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Tue, with seas up to 10 or 11 ft tonight, subsiding to 8 to 9 ft on Mon. Recent satellite-derived wind data provided observations of moderate to fresh NW across the Gulf of California, particularly over the central part of Gulf where isolated wind bars of 25 kt were also noted. Moderate to fresh NW winds will persist over the north and central parts of the Gulf of California or Sea of Cortez tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most of the Gulf beginning on Mon as the ridge over the offshore waters of Baja California weakens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted off Panama per scatterometer data, with seas of 7-8 ft. These marine conditions will persist through Tue, as Hurricane Iota in the SW Caribbean approaches Central America. Elsewhere, moderate SW winds are observed south of the monsoon trough east of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning on Mon. This swell event will likely persist most of the work-week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico continues to show some signs of organization. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, a tropical depression could form within a few days as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. Conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Thursday. Currently, the low has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance in the next 5 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A ridge dominates the waters north of 15N W of 110W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge W of 120W. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range within this area based on altimeter data. The ridge will weaken early this week ahead of a cold front approaching the northwest part of the area late Mon. The front will extend from 30N130W to 25N140W Tue morning, then weaken from 30N125W to 22N140W on Tue night. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front over the NW waters Monday afternoon and evening. Large NW swell, with seas up to 11-13 ft, will accompany the front. Long period NW swell will dominate most of the forecast waters W of 120W through Mon while long period SW will continue to propagate across the waters E of 120W. $$ GR