000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142117 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Nov 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. By late next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Currently, the low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 5 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Northerly winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass into the Tehuantepec region Sun night, reaching gale force late Sun night into Mon morning. Seas are forecast to build to 10-15 by Mon morning. Marine guidance suggests northerly winds of 40 kt with seas of 12-18 ft on Tuesday night. Winds and seas are forecast to further increase later in the week due to the pressure gradient between tropical cyclone Iota and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Nicoya peninsula in Costa Rica to 13N95W to 1008 mb low pressure located near 13.5N107.5W to 10N126W. The ITCZ continues from 10N126W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 101W and 115W, and from 10N to 12N between 115W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see Special Features section for details. A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW-N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and mainly moderate winds S of San Lazaro. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Long period NW swell will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun through Tue, with seas up to 10 or 11 ft Sun and Sun night. In the Gulf of California, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 3-5 ft over the north and central parts of the Gulf Sun and Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens some there. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted off Panama per scatterometer data, with seas 7 to 8 ft. These marine conditions will persist through Tue, as Tropical Cyclone Iota in the west-central Caribbean approaches Central America. Elsewhere, moderate SW winds are observed south of the monsoon trough east of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 15N W of 110W. An area of fresh to locally strong trade winds is noted from 12N to 18N W of 126W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range within this area. The ridge will continue to build eastward across the northern forecast waters, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N-20N west of 120W, with seas of 8-9 ft. High pressure will weaken early next week ahead of a cold front approaching the northwest part of the area late on Mon. The front will extend from 30N129W to 25N140W on Tue morning, then stall and weaken from 30N122W to 21N140W on Wed. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front over the NW waters Mon afternoon and night. Large NW swell, with seas to 11-13 ft, will accompany the front. Long period NW swell will dominate most of the forecast waters W of 120W through Mon while long period SW will continue to propagate across the waters E of 120W. $$ GR