000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization overnight in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. The low has a medium chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 5 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Northerly winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass into the Tehuantepec region Sun night, reaching minimal gale force late Sun night into Mon morning. Seas are forecast to build to 11-13 by Mon morning. Marine guidance suggests northerly winds of 35 to 40 kt with seas of 10-16 ft on Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to further increase later in the week due to the pressure gradient between tropical cyclone Iota and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Central America near 10N85W to 13N92W to 1009 MB low pressure located near 13.5N109W to 10N124W. The ITCZ continues from 10N124W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 101W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 114W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see Special Features section for details. A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW-N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to moderate winds between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro. Long period NW swell will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun through Tue, with seas up to 11 ft Sun night and Monday. In the Gulf of California, expect moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the north and central parts of the Gulf Sun and Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens there. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough east of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Expect fresh SW winds off Panama through Mon, with seas 7 to 8 ft, as Tropical Cyclone Iota in the west-central Caribbean approaches Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 15N W of 110W. An area of fresh to locally strong trade winds is noted W of a line from 18N140W to 14N127W to 09N140W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range within this area. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 125W. The ridge will continue to build eastward across the northern forecast waters, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W. High pressure will weaken early next week ahead of a cold front approaching the northwest part of the area on Mon night. The front will extend from 30N129W to 25N140W on Tue morning, then stall and weaken from 30N122W to 21N140W on Wed. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front over the NW waters Mon afternoon and night. Large NW swell, with seas to 11-13 ft, will accompany the front. $$ GR