000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Nov 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A broad area of low pressure centered near 13.5N108W is slowly becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. The low has a medium chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Central America near 10N85W to 13N92W to low pres near 18n108w to 08N132W. The ITCZ continues from 08N132W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 106W and 120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection from 06N to 08N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California. Scatterometer data shows NW-N winds have increased west of the Baja California coast. Alimeter data indicates seas are 5 to 6 ft. Moderate NW winds with seas to 6 ft will continue through Sun. Long period NW swell will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun through Tue, with seas up to 11 ft Sun night and Monday. Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehunatepec is expected on Mon, as high pressure builds over the western Gulf of Mexico. Marine guidance suggests northerly winds of 35 to 40 kt with seas of 10-13 ft Tuesday, with seas building to 12-18 ft later in the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough east of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Expect fresh SW winds off Panama through Mon, with seas 7 to 8 ft, as Tropical Storm Iota in the west-central Caribbean approaches Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 18N. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 125W. The ridge will continue to build eastward across the northern forecast waters, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W. High pressure will weaken early next week ahead of a cold front approaching the northwest part of the area on Mon night. The front will extend from 30N128W to 24N140W on Tue, then stall and weaken from 30N 122W to 21n140W on Wed. Large NW swell, with seas to 11-12 ft, will accompany the front. $$ Mundell