786 
AXPZ20 KNHC 140300
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad area of low pressure is centered near 13.5N 107.5W.
Satellite imagery indicates convective activity slowly becoming 
better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the 
coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of development 
in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 5 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Central America near 
10N86W to 13N90W to 13N110W to 09N132W. The ITCZ continues from 
09N132W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 11N to 16N between 103W and 112W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja
California. NW-N winds have increased west of the Baja California
coast to Cabo San Lucas. Seas range from 5 to 6 ft. Moderate NW-N
winds with seas to 6 ft will continue through Sun. Long period NW
swell will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun 
through Tue, with seas up to 11 ft Sun night and Monday. 

Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehunatepec is expected on Mon, as high pressure builds over the
western Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests 
northerly winds of 35 to 40 kt with seas of 10-14 ft by Tuesday,
with seas building to 12-20 ft later in the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough E of
100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Expect fresh SW winds off Panama
Sat through Mon, with seas 7 to 8 ft, as Tropical Storm Iota in 
the west-central Caribbean moves toward Central America. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters north of 18N, anchored by high 
pressure located NW of the area. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds 
are noted S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 125W. The 
ridge will build across the northern forecast waters, supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W.  

High pressure will weaken early next week ahead of a cold front 
approaching the northwest corner of the discussion area near 
30N140W on Mon. Large NW swell will accompany the front. Farther
south, trade winds will diminish as the ridge weakens. 

$$
Mundell