000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Nov 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Central America near 
09N84W to 14N106W to 09N119W to 08N137W. The ITCZ continues from
08N137W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is east of a 1012 mb low along the monsoon trough 
centered near 13N108W from 11N to 17N between 103W to 110W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted off the Central
American coast from 04N to 13N between 78W to 90W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja
California. NW-N winds have increased moderate off the Baja
California coast to Cabo San Lucas. Seas range 4-6 ft. Moderate
NW-N winds with seas to 6 ft will continue through Sun. Long
period NW swell will propagate across the waters N of Punta
Eugenia Sun through Tue, with seas up to 11 ft occurring Sun
night into Monday. 

In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh NW-N winds are 
expected to occur Sat night through Mon. 

Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehunatepec is expected on Sun night into Mon, as high pressure 
builds over the western Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine 
guidance suggests northerly winds of 35 kt with seas of 10-14 ft
by Tuesday, with seas building to 12-20 ft later in the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough E of 
100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of monsoon trough. Seas
are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Expect fresh SW winds off Panama Sat
and Sun, with seas 7 to 8 ft, as an area of low pressure begins 
to develop over the west-central Caribbean. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters north of 18N, anchored by high 
pressure located NW of the area. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds 
are noted S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 125W. The 
ridge will strengthen across the northern forecast waters today, 
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west
of 120W. 

Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association 
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest 
of the coast of Mexico.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system 
moves slowly toward the west-northwest away from the coast of 
Mexico. This system has a medium chance of development in the
next 48 hours and a high chance of development in the next 5
days. 

Looking ahead, the high pressure will weaken early next week
ahead of a cold front approaching the northwest corner of the 
discussion area near 30N140W Mon. Large NW swell will accompany 
the front. Farther south, trade winds will diminish as the ridge 
to the north weakens. 

$$
AReinhart/Christensen