000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130901
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Nov 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W in Central America to 
16N95W to 10N119W to 08N131W. The ITCZ continues from 08N131W to
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 09N to 14N between 97W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja 
California, producing light to gentle N winds, with moderate 
NW-N winds off the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are in the 5-6
ft range. Expect increasing winds and building seas off of Baja 
California tonight through Sat night as high pressure builds 
into the area. Seas greater than 8 ft, in long period NW swell, 
are forecast to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia 
Sun through Mon, building to 11 or 12 ft by Sun night.

In the Gulf of California, winds are expected to increase to 
15-20 kt in the northern part of the Gulf Sat night through Mon.

Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehunatepec is expected on Mon, as high pressure builds over the
western Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests 
northerly winds of 35 kt with seas of 10-16 ft by Mon night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough
E of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Expect fresh SW winds off 
Panama Sat and Sun, with seas 7 to 8 ft, as an area of low 
pressure begins to develop over the west-central Caribbean. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters north of 18N, anchored by high 
pressure located NW of the area. A trough extends across the NW 
portion of the waters from 30N132W to 27N139W. Moderate to fresh
S-SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough between 100W and
120W. The ridge will strengthen across the northern forecast 
waters today, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 
10N and 20N west of 120W. 

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred 
miles southwest of the coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
as the system drifts slowly west-northwestward over the eastern 
Pacific. This system has a low chance of development in the next
48 hours and a medium chance of development in the next 5 days. 

$$
Mundell