000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W off the Central American coast to 15N94W to a 1012 mb low near 12N107W to a 1012 mb low near 10N119W to 10N136W. The ITCZ continues from 10N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 101W to 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 116W to 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, producing light to gentle N winds with to moderate NW-N winds off the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Expect increasing winds and building seas off of Baja California Fri night through Sat night as high pressure builds into the area. Seas greater than 8 ft, in long period NW swell, are forecast to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sun through Mon, building to 11 or 12 ft by Sun night. In the Gulf of California, winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt in the northern part of the Gulf Sat night through Mon. Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehunatepec is expected Mon, as high pressure builds over the western Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests northerly winds of 35 kt with seas of 10-16 ft by Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough E of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Expect fresh SW winds off Panama Sat and Sun, with seas 7 to 8 ft, as an area of low pressure begins to develop over the west-central Caribbean. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 18N, anchored by high pressure located NW of the area. A trough extends off the NW portion of the waters from 30N132W to 27N140W with showers along this feature. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 120W. NW swell will briefly propagate across the waters north of 28N and west of 135W tonight. On Fri, a ridge will strengthen across the northern forecast waters, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system drifts slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance of development in the next 5 days. $$ AReinhart