000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W in Central America to 13N98W to 11N120W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 106W to 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Expect increasing winds and building seas N of Cabo San Lazaro Fri night through Sat night as high pressure builds into the area. Seas greater than 8 ft, in long period NW swell, are forecast to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sat night and Sun, building to 11 or 12 ft by Sun night. In the Gulf of California, winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt in the northern part of the Gulf Sat night through Mon. Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehunatepec is expected Mon night, as high pressure builds over the western Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests northerly winds of 35 kt with seas of 10-15 ft by Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough E of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Expect fresh SW winds off Panama Fri and Sat, with seas 7 to 8 ft, as an area of low pressure begins to develop over the west-central Caribbean. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 18N, anchored by high pressure located NW of the area. Scattered moderate convection is mainly south of 14N. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. NW swell will briefly propagate across the waters north of 28N and west of 135W today. On Fri, a ridge will strengthen across the northern forecast waters, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system drifts slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. Chance of development is low in the next 48 hours and medium in the next 5 days $$ AREINHART/CHRISTENSEN