000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120315
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N90W in Central America to 
15N98W to 10N118W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed from 10N to 13N between 102W and 113W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 
119W and 127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong from 09N to 15N
between 135W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja 
California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are in 
the 5-7 ft range. Expect increasing winds and building seas N of
Cabo San Lazaro Fri night through Sat night as high pressure 
builds into the area. Seas greater than 8 ft, in long period NW 
swell, are forecast to propagate across the waters N of Punta 
Eugenia Sat night and Sun, building to 11 or 12 ft by Sun night.

In the Gulf of California, winds are expected to increase to 
15-20 kt in the northern part of the Gulf Sat night through Mon.

Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehunatepec is expected Mon night, as high pressure builds over 
the western Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests 
northerly winds of 35 kt with seas of 10-15 ft by Mon night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough 
E of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Expect fresh SW winds off Panama 
Thu night through Sat, with seas to 8 ft, as an area of low 
pressure begins to develop over the west-central Caribbean. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters north of 18N, anchored by high 
pressure located NW of the area. Scattered moderate convection 
is mainly south of 13N. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are noted S
of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W.

A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 25N west of
135W tonight, reaching from 30N135W to 28n140w by Thu morning. 
The front will stall and weaken to a trough by Thu night. NW 
swell will briefly follow the front Thu across the waters north 
of 28N and west of 135W. By Fri, the ridge will be re-established 
across the northern forecast waters, supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W. 

A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles 
southwest of the coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for slow 
development through the weekend and early next week as this system 
drifts slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific.
Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through 5 days.

$$
Mundell