000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across northern central America from 14N90W to 1008 mb low pressure located near 11N113W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 101W and 108W, and from 09N to 12N between 135W and 138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 112W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Expect increasing winds of 15-20 kt, and building seas N of Cabo San Lazaro Fri night through Sat night as high pressure builds west of the area. By Sat night into Sun, seas greater than 8 ft, in long period NW swell, are forecast to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia, building up to 11 or 12 ft by Sun night. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail most of the forecast period. Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt in the northern part of the Gulf Sun through Mon with seas building to 4-5 ft. Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehunatepec is expected Sun night into Mon as a ridge builds over the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests northerly winds of 35-40 kt with seas of 10-15 ft by Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds are noted per scatterometer data S of the monsoon trough E of 100W, with mainly gentle W-NW winds north of monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Expect fresh SW winds off Panama Thu night through Sat, with seas to 8 ft. This increase in winds and seas could be associated with a developing low pressure system over the central Caribbean. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 18N, anchored by high pressure located well NW of the area. A surface trough is analyzed from 18N136W to 10N138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen on either side of the trough axis, but mainly S of 13N. An area of fresh to locally strong easterly winds are between the trough and high pressure to the N. The trough will continue to drift westward over the next 24 hours. moderate to fresh S-SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 25N west of 135W tonight, reaching from 30N135W to 28n140w by Thu morning. The front will stall and weaken to a trough by Thu night. NW swell will briefly follow the front Thu across the waters north of 28N and west of 135W. By Fri, the ridge will become re- established across the northern forecast waters, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W. A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for slow development through the weekend and early next week as this system drifts slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. $$ GR