000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N81W to 14N94W to 1009 mb low pressure located near 11N113W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 12N between 112W and 122W, and from 09N to 14N between 135W and 138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 95W and 98W, and from 10N to 13N between 101W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are in the 5-8 ft and will begin to subside later today. Expect increasing winds of 15-20 kt, and building seas N of Cabo San Lazaro Fri night through Sat night as high pressure builds west of the area. By Sat night into Sun, seas of 8 to 12 ft in long period NW swell are forecast to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail most of the forecast period. Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt in the northern part of the Gulf Sun through Mon. Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehunatepec is expected Sun night into Mon as a ridge builds over the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail west of Central America, in a mix of SW cross-equatorial swell and NW swell. Moderate moderate W to NW winds will persist north of monsoon trough, which will remain roughly along 10N-12N. Gentle to moderate SW winds will prevail across the region farther south through Sun, except fresh SW winds off Panama Thu night through Sat, with seas to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 18N, anchored by high pressure located well north of the area. A surface trough is analyzed from 17N136W to 10N138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen on either side of the trough axis. An area of fresh to locally strong easterly winds are between the trough and high pressure to the N. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 25N west of 135W tonight. The front will stall and weaken to a trough by Thu night. NW swell will briefly follow the front Thu across the waters north of 25N and west of 135W. By Fri, the ridge will become re-established across the waters north of 20N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SW flow will persist into the monsoon trough in the waters east of 120W. A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for slow development through the weekend and early next week as this system drifts slowly west-northwestward over the east Pacific. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. $$ GR