000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 14N102W to 10N114W to 
beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed from 08N to 14N between 105W and 121W. Scattered 
moderate convection noted from 12N to 17N between 131W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends north of the area along the 33N parallel. 
Recent scatterometer data indicates moderate NW winds west of 
Baja California Sur and in the Gulf of California. Altimeter 
satellite data indicates seas are 8 to 10 ft north of 20N 
between 114W and 118W. Light to gentle breezes prevail off the
coast of southern Mexico.

NW winds off Baja California and in the Gulf of California will 
diminish through Thu as the ridge west of the area weakens ahead
of an approaching weak cold front. Meanwhile, the NW swell off 
Baja California Norte will subside through Thu. Little change is 
expected elsewhere through Sat.

Looking ahead, increased winds and seas are expected off Baja
California Norte by Sat night has high pressure builds west of 
the area, followed by a new round of 8 to 10 ft swell by Mon, 
which will gradually diminish through mid-week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail west of Central America, in a mix of 
SW cross-equatorial swell and NW swell. Moderate moderate W to 
NW winds will persist north of monsoon trough, which will remain 
roughly along 10N-12N. Gentle to moderate SW winds will prevail 
across the region farther south through Sun, except fresh SW 
winds off Panama Thu night through Sat, with seas to 8 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 15N, anchored by
high pressure well north of the area. An upper level low is 
centered near 20N140W. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of
the upper low is supporting a cluster of showers centered near 
15N136W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong 
trade winds from 15N to 20N west of 128W. Moderate trade winds 
prevail elsewhere west of 118W. Recent altimeter satellite data 
indicates 6 to 9 ft seas are present over much of the area north
of 10N, west of 120W. This is primarily in NW swell. Mixed NW 
and SW swell to 8 ft is evident east of 120W.

A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 25N west of
135W tonight, associated with a mid/upper trough. The front will
stall and weaken to a trough by Thu night. NW swell will briefly
follow the front Thu across the waters north of 25N and west of 
135W. By Fri, the ridge will become re-established across the 
waters north of 20N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
between 10N and 20N west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SW flow will 
persist into the monsoon trough in the waters east of 120W. SW 
winds will increase east of 120W, maintaining seas to 8 ft in an
area from 05N to 15N between 100W and 120W.

Looking ahead, there is good agreement among global models an 
area of low pressure will form by late Sat into early Sun along 
the monsoon trough just outside of the Mexican offshore waters 
off Guerrero and Michoacan. The low is expected to drift slowly 
WNW, but there is uncertainty regarding how strong the low will 
be. For now, we are using a model consensus showing mainly fresh
winds near the low early next week.

$$
Mundell