000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N90W to 12N105W to 11N122W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 11N122W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 13N between 102W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 129W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends north of the area along the 33N parallel. Recent scatterometer data indicates moderate NW winds west of Baja California Sur and in the Gulf of California. Altimeter satellite data from earlier today indicates seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 20N between 114W and 118W. Light to gentle breezes prevail off southern Mexico. NW winds off Baja California and in the Gulf of California will diminish Wed and Thu as the ridge west of the area weakens ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Meanwhile, the NW swell off Baja California Norte will subside through Thu. Little change is expected through Sat. Looking ahead, increased winds and seas are expected off Baja California Norte has high pressure builds west of the area, followed by a new round of 8 to 10 ft swell by Mon, which will gradually diminish through mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in this area, in a mix of SW cross- equatorial swell and NW swell. Moderate moderate W to NW winds will persist north of monsoon trough, which will remain roughly along 10N-12N. Gentle to moderate SW winds will prevail across the region through Sun farther south, with SW winds briefly becoming fresh off Costa Rica and Panama by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 15N, anchored by high pressure well north of the area. An upper level low is centered near 20N140W. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of the upper low is supporting a cluster of showers centered near 15N137W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds from 15N to 21N west of 129W. Moderate trade winds prevail elsewhere west of 118W. Recent altimeter satellite data indicates 6 to 8 ft seas are present over much of the area north of 10N, west of 120W. This is primarily in NW swell. Mixed NW and SW swell to 8 ft is evident east of 120W. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 25N west of 135W by late Wed, associated with a mid/upper trough. The front will stall and dissipate through Fri. New NW swell will briefly follow the front Thu across the waters north of 25N and west of 135W. By Fri, the ridge will become re-established across the waters north of 20N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SW flow will persist into the monsoon trough in the waters east of 120W. SW winds will increase east of 120W, maintaining seas to 9 ft in an area from 05N to 15N between 100W and 120W. Looking ahead, there is good agreement among global models an area of low pressure will form by late Sat into early Sun along the monsoon trough just outside of the Mexican offshore waters off Guerrero and Michoacan. The low is expected to drift slowly WNW, but there is uncertainty regarding how strong the low will be. For now, we are using a model consensus showing fresh to strong winds near the low early next week. $$ Mundell