000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 10N100 to 10N125W to 13N132W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection prevails 08N to 10N between 105W and 107W. Elsewhere scattered moderate convection persists from 08N to 11N between 102W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure to Baja California Sur. Scatterometer satellite data from earlier this morning indicated gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California Norte and the Gulf of California. The data also indicated moderate to locally fresh NW winds off Baja California Sur, with an area of strong NW winds off southern Baja California Sur between Todos Santos and Los Inocentes. Concurrent altimeter satellite data indicated seas of 8 to 10 ft in the waters beyond 120 nm off Baja California Norte, indicative of primarily NW swell in the region. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the northern half of the Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 farther south. Farther south, a ship reported wind to 15 kt off Cabo Corrientes. Lighter winds are estimated off southern Mexico. A recent altimeter satellite pass confirmed 4 to 6 ft south of 20N, likely in primarily SW swell. A mid to upper level short wave trough is moving across the southwest US and the northern parts of Baja California and the Gulf of California. This will deepen resident troughing over the area enough to support moderate to fresh NW winds in the Gulf of California today through Wed, then diminishing as the trough lifts out and the ridge to the west weakens. Meanwhile, the NW swell off Baja California Norte will subside through Thu. Little change is expected through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in this area, in a mix of SW cross- equatorial swell and NW swell. Moderate SW winds will prevail across the region through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 15N, anchored by a 1034 mb high pressure well to the north of the area near 36N142W. An upper level low is centered near 21N140W. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of the upper low is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms near 15N137W, and a surface trough along 132W from 08N to 12N. A scatterometer satellite pass from around 05 UTC indicated fresh to strong trade winds from 15N to 20N west of 130W, between the surface trough and the ridge to the north. Moderate trade winds prevail elsewhere west of 120W. Farther east, light NW winds persist north of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh SW winds to the south of the monsoon trough. Recent altimeter satellite data indicates 6 to 8 ft seas are present over much of the area north of 10N, west of 120W. This is primarily in NW swell. Mixed NW and SW swell to 8 ft is evident east of 120W. The upper low loses definition tonight as a mid/upper trough digs into the waters north of 25N and west of 130W, allowing the convection and strong winds to diminish. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 25N west of 135W by late Wed, associated with the mid/upper trough. The front will stall and dissipate through Fri. The NW swell will subside in the meantime, although new NW swell will follow briefly follow the front Thu across the waters north of 25N and west of 135W. By Fri, the ridge will be in place again across the waters north of 20N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between 10N and 20N west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SW flow will persist into the monsoon trough in the waters east of 120W. $$ Christensen