000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070323
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N88W to 10N91W to 12N98W to
11N102W to 12N116W, then resumes from near 14N124W to 09N130W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to 08N134W to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between
96W and 104W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident
from 09N to 12N between 136W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Scatterometer data earlier today showed N-NW
winds of 25-30 kt blowing across and downstream of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated at 11-13 ft in the area of peak 
winds. Swell generated in this region is producing a large area 
of high seas that are combining with SW cross-equatorial swell. 

A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte tonight, and
induce fresh to strong westerly gap winds in the northern Gulf of
California tonight through Sat night, and fresh NW winds across 
the offshore waters of Baja. NW swell will follow the front, with
combined seas in excess of 8 ft encompassing the waters off Baja
California through Sun, reaching the area near Socorro Island by
late Sun. Peak seas may reach as high as 16 ft off northern Baja
California Norte by Sun.

Gentle winds will persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec plume. NW winds are expected to remain at
10-15 kt from Puerto Vallarta to Manzanillo through the weekend, 
with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft Sat and Sun as SW swell subsides.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Tropical Depression Eta in the NW Caribbean Sea is enhancing SW
wind flow into Central America from Costa Rica to El Salvador, 
with scatterometer data showing a plume of fresh S to SW winds
extending well offshore. Seas are 9 to 11 ft within this band of
fresh winds, and 7-9 ft nearby, in a mix of SW cross-equatorial 
swell and NW swell spreading out from Tehuantepec. Winds and seas
will begin to diminish late tonight and Sat as Eta moves away.
As Eta exits the NW Caribbean Sat and lifts northward, moderate 
to locally fresh winds SW will shift from Papagayo region to the 
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala, then remain moderate through
Sun. These conditions and seas of 6-8 ft are expected to prevail
through Sun morning before subsiding Sun afternoon through Mon.

The broad circulation associated with Tropical Depression Eta 
has caused heavy rainfall across portions of Central America. 
Life-threatening flash floods and river flooding is still
possible, but the threat of very heavy rain is diminishing.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys is now a well 
defined low-level cloud swirl. The remnants of Odalys will move 
west-southwestward through Sat night and gradually weaken to a 
trough as it reaches cooler waters and drier more stable air.

Ridging dominates north of 20N, anchored by strong high pressure
well north of the area. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds persist
from 10N to 20N, west of the remnants of Odalys, while moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds prevail N of 20N and W of 118W, ahead of 
an approaching cold front. A strong cold front extends from 
30N122W to 28N130W to 30N141W. This front will push southward 
across the far northern waters through Sat, then stall and 
dissipate near 20N on Sun. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will 
accompany the front as it crosses 30N, along with large NW to N 
swell. This swell will mix with the lingering swell from Odalys 
and produce seas greater than 8 ft for most of the area north of 
12N and west of 110W by early next week. 

A low pressure area identified on satellite imagery near 09N139W
earlier today has shifted west of the discussion area, and marine
conditions are expected to improve overnight. Active convection 
associated with low- level convergence into the low is evident 
from 09N to 12N between 136W and 139W. 

$$
Mundell