000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062218 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Nov 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Late morning satellite ASCAT data showed N to NW winds of 25-30 kt blowing across and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are assumed to remain at 12-14 ft in this area of peak winds. Sustained gale force winds are not expected to resume in the next few days, and the gale warning has been discontinued. Swell generated from this event is still producing a large area of high seas of 8-11 ft that are combining with incoming SW cross equatorial swell, that extend to near the equator, between the Galapagos Islands and 115W. Winds may pulse again to around 30 kt tonight across Tehuantepec, then will gradually diminish across the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions through Sat. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. Heavy Rainfall: The circulation associated with Tropical Depression Eta continues to produce a broad surge of tropical moisture from far NW Panama to Guatemala, embedded in the low level southwesterly flow across the tropical eastern Pacific. This will continue to support heavy rainfall potential across portions of Central America today and tonight, specifically across portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Due to recent very heavy rains, this may cause life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Please refer to statements provided by your local national meteorological agency for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N89W TO 10N102W TO 09N118W, then resumes from near 14N124W TO 10N130W. ITCZ from 10N130W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB near 09.5N139W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14.5N between 86W and 103W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the terminations of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Midday scatterometer data showed moderate NW winds west of Baja California, and light to gentle winds farther south, outside of the Tehuantepec area. Seas are 6-8 ft across the offshore waters due to incoming NW swell, and 6-7 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands and SW of Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, seas are 6 to 7 ft SW swell south of 20N. A strong cold front is just NW of the area this afternoon, and will sweep into Baja California Norte later this afternoon and evening, and induce fresh to strong westerly gap winds in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sat night, and fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja. NW swell will also follow the front, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft encompassing the waters off Baja California through Sun, reaching the area near Socorro Island by late Sun. Peak seas may reach as high as 16 ft off northern Baja California Norte by Sun. Gentle winds will persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec plume. NW winds are expected to remain at 10-15 kt nearshore from Puerto Vallarta to Manzanillo through the weekend with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft Sat and Sun as SW swell currently dominating the region subsides. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Tropical Depression Eta centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 17.3N 86.5W at 2100 UTC moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Late morning satellite scatterometer data showed a large band of fresh southwesterly winds extending from the tropics along 06N to far NW Costa Rica and the Papagayo region, then diminishing elsewehre to the west along the NW coast of Nicaragua and El Salvador. Seas are 10 to 11 ft within this band of fresh winds, and 9-10 ft on either side due to a mix of SW cross equatorial swell and NW swell spreading out from Tehuantepec. Slight better marine conditions are noted off eastern Panama and the coast of Colombia. Eta will lift slowly northward through Sat, which will allow winds and seas across these eastern Pacific waters to begin to diminish late tonight through Sat. Meanwhile, complex seas of up to 12 ft persist off the rest of the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala, in a mix of swell emerging from the prolonged gale event in the nearby Tehuantepec region, and longer period SW swell. As Eta exits the Gulf of Honduras Sat and lifts northward, moderate to locally fresh winds SW will shift from Papagayo region to the waters of El Salvador and Guatemala, then remain moderate through Sun. These conditions and seas of 6-8 ft are expected to prevail through Sun morning before subsiding Sun afternoon through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys 10011 mb is centered near 17.5N126W. The sheared center of Odalys is completely exposed and is now a well defined low level cloud swirl. These remnants of Odalys will continue moving west southwestward during the next 24 hours and gradually weaken to a trough by late Sat as it reaches cooler waters and drier more stable air. Winds to 25 kt and seas 9-10 ft across the NW semicircle will slowly subside. Ridging dominates north of 20N, anchored by strong 1045 mb high pressure well north of the Hawaiian Islands. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds persist from 10N to 20N, west of the remnants of Odalys, wile moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail N of 20N and W of 118W, ahead of an approaching cold front. A large envelope of seas greater than 8 ft surrounds Odalys, while 8 to 9 ft seas in NW swell and NE wind waves prevail from 08N across the remainder of the area west of 118W. This strong cold front will push southward across the far northern waters today through tonight, then stall and dissipate near 20N by Sat night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will accompany the front as it crosses 30N, along with large NW to N swell. This swell will mix with the lingering swell from Odalys and produce seas greater than 8 ft for most of the area north of 12N and west of 110W by early next week. A 1012 mb low pressure center is seen on satellite imagery near 09.5N139W. Afternoon scatterometer data showed winds to 25 kt across the NW semicircle of this low, where seas are 8 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted with the low from 09N to 11.5N between 137W and 140W. The low will shift west and exit the area to the west of 140W later tonight, allowing conditions to improve. Farther east, seas greater than 8 ft in a mix of SW swell and NE swell emerging out of Tehuantepec dominate the waters mainly south of 13N and east of 119W. This area of seas will rapidly subside through Sat to below 8 ft in SW swell as the Tehuantepec gale event begins to wind down tonight through Sat. $$ Stripling