000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061630 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gales continue across the Gulf this morning, but have diminished to minimal gale force and the areal extent of these winds has decreased considerably in the past 24 hours. Peak seas are estimated at 13 ft. Swell generated from this event is still producing a large area of high seas that are combining with incoming SW cross equatorial swell, that extend to near the equator. Winds will diminish today, and dropping below gale force later this morning. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. Heavy Rainfall: The circulation associated with Tropical Depression Eta is producing a surge of moist southwesterly flow across the tropical eastern Pacific that will support heavy rainfall across portions of Central America today, specifically across portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Due to recent very heavy rains, this may cause life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Please refer to statements provided by your local national meteorological agency for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Low pres near 09.5N138W...Scattered moderate isolated strong from 07N to 12.5N between 135W and 140W. The monsoon trough extends from 11N99W TO 13N106W TO 09N118W, then resumes from near 13N124W TO 09N132W. ITCZ FROM 09N132W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 09.5N138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 14N between 85W and 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate NW winds west of Baja California, and light to gentle winds farther south, outside of the Tehuantepec area. Seas are 6-8 ft across the offshore waters due to incoming NW swell, and also near the Revillagigedo Islands, and 7 ft SW of Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, seas are 6 to 7 ft SW swell south of 20N. A strong cold front will sweep into Baja California Norte later today, and induce fresh to strong westerly gap winds in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sat night. NW swell will also follow the front, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft encompassing the waters off Baja California through Sun, reaching the area near Socorro Island by late Sun. Peak seas may reach as high as 17 ft off northern Baja California Norte by Sun. Gentle winds will persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 6 to 7 ft in mostly southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Tropical Depression Eta centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 17.8N 87.0W at 1500 UTC moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Overnight scatterometer satellite data showed areas of fresh southwesterly winds west off the coasts of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador, and remain centered across the Papagayo region this morning. Eta will lift slowly northward through Sat, which will allow winds and seas across these eastern Pacific waters to diminish tonight through Sat. Meanwhile, complex seas of up to 12 ft persist off the rest of the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala, in a mix of swell emerging from the prolonged gale event in the nearby Tehuantepec region, and longer period SW swell. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 8 to 9 ft seas in SW swell persist off the coast of Panama and eastern Costa Rica. Slight better marine conditions are noted off eastern Panama and the coast of Colombia. Winds and seas will begin to diminish late today off Panama and Costa Rica, and the swell from the Tehuantepec gap event will begin to subside as well. However, fresh to occasionally strong onshore SW winds off Nicaragua will persist today, maintaining 8 to 11 ft seas with SW swell. These winds will diminish by Sat, and seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Sun. Moderate SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell will prevail by Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys 1007 mb is centered near 18N125.5W. The sheared center of Odalys is completely exposed and is now a well defined low level cloud swirl. Odalys will continue moving west to west southwestward during the next 24 hours and gradually weaken as it reaches cooler waters and drier more stable air. Ridging dominates north of 20N, anchored by strong 1045 mb high pressure well north of the Hawaiian Islands. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds persist from 10N to 24N, outside of Odalys, west of 120W. Building high pressure north of 24N is producing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds spreading into the northern waters ahead of an approaching cold front. A large envelope of seas greater than 8 ft surrounds Odalys, while 8 to 9 ft seas in NW swell and NE wind waves prevail from 08N across the remainder of the area west of 119W. A strong cold front will push southward across the far northern waters today through tonight, then stall and dissipate near 20N by Sat night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will accompany the front as it crosses 30N, along with large NW to N swell. This swell will mix with the lingering swell from Odalys and produce seas greater than 8 ft for most of the area north of 12N and west of 110W by early next week. Farther east, seas greater than 8 ft in a mix of SW swell and NE swell emerging out of Tehuantepec dominate the waters mainly south of 14N and east of 119W. This area of seas will rapidly subside through Sat to below 8 ft in SW swell as the Tehuantepec gale event begins to wind down today through tonight. $$ Stripling