000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060331 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gales continue across the Gulf this evening. Peak seas are estimated at 16 ft. Swell generated from this event will produce a massive area of large seas that will extend south of the equator. Winds will gradually diminish through Fri, dropping below gale force by Fri afternoon. Marine interests transiting across or in the vicinity the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Potential Heavy Rainfall event: The circulation associated with Tropical Depression is producing a surge of moist southwesterly flow across the tropical eastern Pacific that will support heavy rainfall across portions of Central America through Fri, and may cause life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Please refer to statements provided by your local national meteorological agency for more details. Post-tropical Cyclone Odalys is centered near 18.6N 124.3W at 0300 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The sheared center of Odalys is completely exposed. Odalys will continue moving westward during the next 24 hours and weaken to a remnant low by Fri as it reaches cooler waters and drier more stable air. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N93W to 10N124W. The ITCZ continues from 10N124W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 86W and 98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 08N to 12N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Earlier scatterometer data indicated moderate NW winds west of Baja California and light to gentle winds farther south, outside of the Tehuantepec area. Seas are 7-8 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands, and 7-8 ft SW of Baja California Sur. Elsewhere 4 to 6 ft primarily in NW swell north of 20N, and SW swell south of 20N. A strong cold front will sweep into Baja California Norte on Fri, and induce fresh to strong westerly gap winds in the northern Gulf of California late Fri through Sat night. NW swell will also follow the front, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft encompassing the waters off Baja California through Sun, reaching the area near Socorro Island by late Sun. Peak seas may reach as high as 17 ft off northern Baja California Norte by Sun. Gentle winds will persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mostly southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Tropical Depression Eta centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 16.6N 87.8W at 0300 UTC moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scatterometer satellite data showed areas of fresh to locally strong southwesterly winds extending from 03N into the coasts of NW Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador. Eta will lift slowly northward, which will allow winds and seas to diminish through Fri night. Meanwhile, complex seas of up to 14 ft persist off the rest of the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala, in a mix of swell emerging from the prolonged gale event in the nearby Tehuantepec region, and longer period SW swell. Fresh SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in SW swell persist off the coast of western Panama and Costa Rica. Better marine conditions are noted off eastern Panama and the coast of Colombia. Winds and seas will diminish through Fri off Panama and Costa Rica, and the swell from the Tehuantepec gap event will begin to subside as well. However, fresh to occasionally strong onshore SW winds off Nicaragua will persist into Fri, maintaining 8 to 11 ft seas with SW swell. These winds will diminish by Sat, and seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Sun. Moderate SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell will prevail by Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys. Ridging dominates north of 20N, anchored by strong high pressure well north of the Hawaiian Islands. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds persist from 10N to 28N, outside of Odalys, west of 120W. A large envelope of seas greater than 8 ft surrounds Odalys, and an area of 8 to 9 ft seas also persists west of Odalys, from 17N to 22N to beyond 140W, due to a mix of SW swell and wind waves. Odalys will dissipate as it moves westward across the area through Sat. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will push southward, then stall and dissipate near 20N by Sat night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will accompany the front as it crosses 30N, along with large NW to N swell. This swell will mix with the lingering swell from Odalys and produce seas greater than 8 ft for most of the area north of 12N and west of 110W by early next week. Farther east, seas greater than 8 ft in a mix of SW swell and NE swell emerging out of Tehuantepec dominate the waters mainly south of 14N and east of 115W. This area of seas will rapidly subside Fri through Sat to below 8 ft in SW swell as the Tehuantepec gale event begins to wind down. $$ Mundell