000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Nov 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure persists across the Gulf of Mexico behind a frontal boundary that currently extends over the western Caribbean. An evening scatterometer satellite pass indicated winds were still at minimal gale. Seas are estimated to be 11 to 12 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move into the southwest Gulf on Sun allowing for gale force winds to increase to occasional strong gales through early next week. Northerly swell will mix with longer period southerly swell to support seas in excess of 8 ft well downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with peak seas building back to near 20 ft early next week. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Heavy rainfall continues to be possible across portions of Central America into early next week, particularly western Panama and Costa Rica to begin with, then spreading northwestward early next week. When heavy rainfall occurs, flash flooding and mudslides may be possible. Refer to statements provided by your national meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis has been relocated to near 102W/103W from 05N- 15N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 100W and 104W, and scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 102W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N95W to 12N110W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 12N west of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. High pressure northwest of Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate northerly breezes across the Mexican offshore waters off Baja California and the Gulf of California. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail in both the open waters and in the Gulf of California. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft in NW swell in the waters of Baja California by early next week. Elsewhere, little change is expected through the next several days. Gentle winds persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mostly southerly swell. Little change is expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Sun, with isolated areas of fresh winds ahead and behind of a tropical wave. Seas are expected to increase offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight due to gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec pushing northerly waves into the area. Larger seas are expected early next week across this same area due to greater coverage and strength of the Tehuantepec gap winds NW of the area. Elsewhere seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft in mainly long period southerly swell. Seas will build slightly to the south and east of the Galapagos Islands into early next week due to reinforcing southerly swell. Moderate offshore gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through Sun before turning onshore and pulsing to fresh through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters north of 15N. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to locally fresh NE trade winds from the monsoon trough to 20N and west of 115W, for the next several days. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this region, in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change is expected through the weekend. A complex low pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to move NE through the weekend. A trailing front may slip southeast of 30N140W by early next week with winds remaining 20 kt or less. Associated seas will build to 8-9 ft behind this boundary on Mon afternoon/evening, impacting the waters north of 25N and west of 137W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail between 100W and 140W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Minor fluctuations in winds and seas are expected across this area through the weekend. Looking ahead, computer models suggest that a broad area of low pressure could become organized by Tue a couple of hundred miles southwest of Clarion Island, and move WNW through the end of the week. There is broad disagreement among the main global models, and confidence remains low on the exact locations and intensity of this low pressure at this time. $$ Christensen