000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...Strong high pressure building across the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front today will induce strong northerly gap winds through the Chivela pass and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Computer model guidance shows a rapid increase in northerly winds to near gale force this afternoon through evening, increasing to 40 kt tonight, with gales continuing into Sat morning. Strong gap winds will persist Saturday, with gales returning Sun morning as a reinforcing front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Peak seas during this high wind event are expected to build to around 16 to 17 ft Fri afternoon. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 80W/81W, north of 05N, moving westward at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below and extends northward across the Caribbean between 80W and the east coast of Nicaragua. This wave is expected move westward across the waters E of 90W in the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 08.5N84W to 13N100W to 13N114W to 09.5N131W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N E of 94W, from 09N to 15N between 94W and 123W, and from 07.5N to 10.5N W of 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail west of Baja California this morning, where seas are 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft well offshore of Cabo San Lucas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish slightly across the region by later today as high pressure northwest of the area shifts farther northwestward. These relatively tranquil conditions are expected to persist through the weekend. Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore waters south of 19N, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, where moderate N to NE winds are expected through this evening. Except for offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through the weekend. Winds and seas will increase rapidly offshore and downwind of Tehuantepec tonight through the weekend as a significant gale gap wind event dominates the region. See above for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Sun, with isolated areas of fresh winds this afternoon through tonight ahead of an approaching tropical wave. Seas are expected to increase offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through Sat night due to gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec pushing northerly waves into the area. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region Sat night. Active weather is expected across the waters north of 04N, from the Papagayo region southeast into Central America and coastal Colombia today. Ample moisture persists across the region, and the tropical wave along 80W/81W will act as a focus for deep convection. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually shift west along with the wave tonight, and move well offshore by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge persists across the northern forecast waters west of 120W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh NE trade winds over an area roughly from 10N to 22N, west of 115W, for the next several days. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this region, in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change is expected through Fri. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail between 100W and 130W, where seas are 7-8 ft. Winds between 115W and 125W are expected to increase slightly today, raising sea heights to 8-9 ft there. $$ Stripling