000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...Strong high pressure building across the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front today will induce strong northerly gap winds through the Chivela pass and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Model guidance shows a rapid increase to near gale force this afternoon, increasing to 40 kt tonight, with gales continuing into Sat morning. Strong gap winds will persist Saturday, with gales returning Sun morning. Peak seas during this high wind event are expected to build to around 16 to 17 ft Fri afternoon. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 79W, north of 01N into Panama, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 13N101W to 13N114W to 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 85W and 99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection evident in clusters from 07N to 14N between 114W and 128W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate N to NE winds prevail west of Baja California, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Winds and seas are expected to diminish across the region by later today as high pressure north of the area shifts northwest. Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore waters south of 19N, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, where moderate to fresh NW winds are expected through this evening. Except for offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Sun. Seas are expected to increase west of Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through Sat night due to gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec pushing northerly waves into the area. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region Sat night. Active weather is expected across the waters north of 04N, from the Papagayo region southeast into Central America and coastal Colombia today. Ample moisture persists across the region, and the tropical wave along 79W will act as a focus for deep convection. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually shift west along with the wave tonight, and move well offshore by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge persists across the northern forecast waters west of 120W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh NE trade winds over an area roughly from 12N to 23N, west of 115W, for the next several days. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this region, in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change is expected through Fri. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail between 100W and 130W. Winds between 115W and 125W are expected to increase slightly today, raising sea heights to around 8 ft there. $$ Mundell