000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...Strong high pressure building across the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front overnight through Thursday will induce strong northerly gap winds through the Chivela pass and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu evening. Model guidance suggests a rapid increase to near gale force Thu afternoon, increasing to 40 kt overnight, with gales continuing into Sat morning. Strong gap winds will persist Saturday, with gales returning Sun morning. Peak seas during the high wind event are expected to build to around 16 to 17 ft Fri afternoon. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are presently no identifiable tropical waves analyzed across the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 13N97W to low pres 1010 mb near 11N119W to 10N127W. The ITCZ continues from 10N127W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 78W and 89W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 88W and 94W, and scattered moderate to strong convection is evident from 07N to 12N between 114W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail west of Baja California where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Winds and seas are expected to diminish across the region Thu as high pressure north of the area drifts northwest. Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore waters south of 19N, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, where moderate to fresh NW winds are expected through Thu evening. Except for offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Sun. Seas are expected to increase west of Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through Sat night due to gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec pushing northerly waves into the area. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region Sat night. Active convection continues tonight across the waters north of 04N, from the Papagayo region southeastward into Central America and coastal Colombia. Ample moisture persists across this region between the exiting Zeta in the northern Gulf of Mexico and an approaching tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea along 77W. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually shift west through Thu night, and well offshore by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge persists across the northern forecast waters west of 120W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh NE trade winds over an area roughly from 12N to 23N, west of 115W, for the next several days. Recent altimeter data indicated seas are mainly 6 to 7 ft across this region in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change is expected through Fri. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail between 100W and 130W. Winds between 115W and 130W are expected to increase slightly through Thu afternoon, raising sea heights to around 8 ft there. $$ Mundell