000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure building west of a cold front is expected to push southward across the western Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Zeta exits the basin Thu. This will induce strong northerly gap winds through the Chivela pass and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late on Thu. Model guidance suggests a rapid wind increase to near gale force winds near sunset Thu, increasing to 40 kt overnight, with gales continuing into Sat morning. Strong gap winds will persist Saturday, with gales returning Sun morning. Peak seas during the high wind event are expected to build to 16-17 ft Fri afternoon. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are presently no identifiable tropical waves analyzed across the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74W to 09N79W to 12N91W to 12N115W to 10.5N128W to 11N135W. The ITCZ continues from 11N135W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 11N E of 88W, and from 08.5N to 12N between 117W and 132W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 93W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front has stalled this morning from near Mazatlan southwestward across the entrance to the Gulf of California. Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh to strong N to NW winds in the southern Gulf of California associated with the front, and fresh northerly winds south of Punta Eugenia. Seas across those areas were around 8 ft through sunrise, and are still likely at 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail west of Baja California where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the area today as the front dissipates and high pressure to the NW drifts further NW. Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, where moderate to fresh NW winds are expected through Thu evening, associated with the decaying cold front across the entrance to the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Sun. Seas are expected to increase west of Guatemala and El Salvador later in the week due to gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec pushing northerly waves into the area. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected in the Papagayo region Sat night. Very active convection continues this morning across the waters north of 04N from the Papagayo region east and southeastward across Central America and into coastal Colombia. Ample moisture persists across this region between to exiting Zeta in the Gulf of Mexico and an approaching tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea. Look for this active weather to continue through Thu night before shifting offshore. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area extends a broad ridge southward into the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough and the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE trade winds over an area roughly from 12N to 22N, west of 115W. Overnight altimeter data indicated seas are mainly 6 to 8 ft across this region in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change is expected in these conditions through Thu before seas subside very slightly. $$ Stripling