129 
AXPZ20 KNHC 280900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Oct 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure building west of
a cold front expected to push southward in the western Gulf of
Mexico as Zeta exits the basin will induce strong northerly gap
winds through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
Thu. Model guidance suggests a rapid wind increase to near gale 
force winds near sunset Thu, increasing to 40 kt overnight, with
gales continuing into Sat morning. Strong gap winds will persist
Saturday, with gales returning Sun morning. Peak seas during the
high wind event are expected to be near 16-17 ft Fri afternoon.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are presently no identifiable tropical waves analyzed across
the eastern Pacific Ocean.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 
12N92W to 12N116W to 11N129W. The ITCZ continues from 11N129W to
beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N 
to 14N between 83W and 108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is evident from 09N to 13N between 114W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front is pushing southward towards Cabo 
Corrientes. Recent scatteromter data shows fresh to strong N to 
NW winds in the southern Gulf of California associated with the 
front, and fresh northerly winds south of Punta Eugenia. Winds 
and seas will gradually diminish across the area today as the 
front weakens. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N to NE 
winds prevail west of Baja California where seas are 5 to 7 ft. 
Fresh northerly winds and 6-7 ft seas will linger SW of Punta 
Eugenia this morning.

Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore
waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta 
and Manzanillo, where moderate to fresh NW winds are expected 
through Thu evening, associated with the decaying cold front 
moving out of the Gulf of California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough through Sun. Seas are expected to increase west of
Guatemala and El Salvador later in the week due to gale force 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh offshore gap 
winds are expected in the Papagayo region Sat night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure north of the area extends a broad ridge southward 
into the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough
and the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE trade winds over 
an area roughly from 12N to 22N, west of 115W. Altimeter data
indicates seas are mainly 6 to 7 ft across this region in a mix 
of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change is expected in 
these conditions through Thu.

$$
Mundell