000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280300
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Oct 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure building west of
a cold front expected to push southward in the western Gulf of
Mexico as Zeta exits the basin will induce strong northerly gap
winds through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
Thu. Model guidance suggests a rapid wind increase to near gale 
force winds near sunset Thu, increasing to 40 kt overnight, with
gales continuing into Sat morning. Strong gap winds will persist
Saturday, with gales returning Sun morning. Peak seas during 
this high wind event are expected to be 16-17 ft Fri afternoon.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are presently no identifiable tropical waves analyzed across
the basin.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10.5N86W to
13N92W to 13N115W to 12N131W. The ITCZ continues from 12N131W to 
beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 09N to 12N east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 09N to 14N between 115W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing southward out of the Gulf of California
towards Cabo Corrientes. Scatteromter data earlier today showed 
fresh to strong N to NW winds associated with the front. Winds
and seas will diminish across the area through Wed as the front
weakens. Elsewhere, fresh N to NE winds prevail west of Baja 
California where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh northerly winds and 
6-7 ft seas will linger across the outer offshore waters SW of 
Punta Eugenia through Wed morning.

Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore
waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta 
and Manzanillo where moderate to fresh NW winds are expected 
through Thu evening, associated with the decaying cold front 
moving out of the Gulf of California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough through Sun. Seas are expected to increase west of
Guatemala and El Salvador later in the week due to the gale 
force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh offshore gap winds 
are expected across the Papagayo region beginning Sat night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure north of the area extends a broad ridge southward 
into the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough
and the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE trade winds over 
an area roughly from 12N to 22N, west of 115W. Altimeter data
indicates seas are 6 to 7 ft across this region in a broad mix 
of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change is expected in 
these conditions through Thu.

$$
Mundell