000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning...a strong cold front has swept southward across the full length of the Gulf of California and Baja California last night and today. Sustained gale force winds and gusts occurring across northern portions of the Gulf north of the Tiburon Basin has diminished below gale force, and gale warnings have been discontinued. Strong northerly winds currently prevail across most of the full length of the Gulf this afternoon, with peak seas to 10 ft across north portions, and 8 ft across southern portions. Winds and seas will begin begin to diminish across the Gulf from north to south beginning late this afternoon through Wed. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are presently no tropical wave identifiable across the basin. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74W to 09N80W to 13N94W to 11N133W. The ITCZ begins near 11N133W and continues beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09.5N E of 84W, from 08.5N to 16.5N between 89W and 100W, and from 11N to 12.5N W of 134W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 113W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The strongest cold front of the season has swept across NW Mexico and extends from near Mazatlan southwestward across the entrance to the Gulf to near 21N112W. Strong northerly winds will persist across much of the Gulf through this afternoon before beginning to diminish from north to south. Seas of 6-9 ft will prevail across the southern portions of the Gulf through this evening before winds and seas begin to slowly subside tonight. The strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf are spilling through the gaps in the terrain of Baja California Norte and producing narrow plumes of strong NE winds to 25 kt across portions of the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, where seas are 6-8 ft. As winds diminish across the northern Gulf later this afternoon, conditions will also improve across these northern offshore waters. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds prevail across the remaining offshore waters of Baja California where seas are 5-7 ft. Northerly winds to near 20 kt and seas of 6-8 ft will linger across the outer offshore waters to the SW of Punta Eugenia and across the entrance to the Gulf of California through sunrise Wed before gradually subsiding during the day Wed. Light and gentle winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu. The next significant gap wind event in Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Thu evening. Model guidance suggest a rapid wind increase to near gale force winds around sunset Thu and increasing to 40 kt overnight, with gales continuing through Sat morning. force winds by Fri afternoon. Strong gap winds are expected to persist through the weekend with gales returning Sun morning. Peak seas during this evening are expected to build to 16 ft by Fri afternoon. Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo where moderate to fresh northwest winds are expected this afternoon through Thu evening associated with the cold front across the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will prevail mainly between the monsoon trough and N of the Galapagos Islands through the forecast period. Seas are expected to remain in the 5-6 ft range, increasing to 6-7 ft Fri due to NW waves spreading into the area from the upcoming Tehuantepec gap wind event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure N of the area extends a broad ridge southward into the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the monsoon and the ITCZ will support the continuation of moderate to locally fresh NE winds over a belt approximately from 12N to 22N W of 115W. Seas are generally 6-8 ft across this region in a broad mix of swell and easterly tradewind waves. Little change is expected in these conditions through Wed morning before shifting W of 140W late on Wed. $$ Stripling