000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271626 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning...a strong cold front has swept southward across the northern half of the Gulf of California, Baja California Norte and the Mexican state of Sonora overnight. Gale to near gale force winds has been blowing much of the overnight hours across the northern Gulf, with frequent gusts to 40 kt. Seas there have built to 10 ft. These winds have diminished very slightly this morning, and remain at or just below gale force, but still with frequent gusts to near 40 kt. These winds and gale force gusts will diminish below gale force across the northern Gulf by around noon today, and then further abate late this afternoon. Strong northerly winds have spread through the Tiburon Basin overnight and central portions of the Gulf, and have spread to southern portions of the Gulf in recent hours, where seas have built to 9 ft. While winds diminish across north portions of the Gulf late this afternoon and evening, strong northerly winds will continue across southern portions and the entrance to the Gulf tonight before diminishing to near 20 kt by sunrise Wed. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave previously analyzed near 130W, has been removed from the 1200 UTC map this morning. Cyclonic turning is no longer evident in satellite imagery across this area. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74W to 09N79W to 13N94W to 11N131W. The ITCZ begins near 11N131W and continues beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 80W, from 09.5N to 17N between 87W and 100W, from 09N to 13.5N between 113W and 128W, and from 10N to 12N W of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The strongest cold front of the season has swept across NW Mexico and extends from just south of Los Mochis southwestward across Baja California Sur to the offshore waters near 24.5N115W. Strong northerly winds will continue to spread southward behind the slowly advancing front and reach the southern portions and the entrance to the Gulf later this morning through this afternoon. Seas of 6-9 ft will prevail across the southern portions of the Gulf through this evening before winds and seas begin to slowly subside tonight. The strong to near gale force winds across the northern Gulf are spilling through the gaps in the terrain of Baja California Norte and producing narrow plumes of strong NE winds to 25 kt across portions of the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, where seas are 7-8 ft. As winds diminish across the northern Gulf this afternoon, conditions will also improve across these northern offshore waters. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California where seas are 5-7 ft. The cold front will move southward to near Cabo Corrientes by Wed morning, with winds and seas slowly subsiding from north to south. Northerly winds to near 20 kt and seas of 6-8 ft will linger across the outer offshore waters to the SW of Punta Eugenia and across the entrance to the Gulf of California through sunrise Wed before gradually subsiding during the day Wed. Light and gentle winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu. The next gap wind event in Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Thu evening. Model guidance suggest a rapid wind increase to near gale force afterwards and gale force winds by Fri afternoon. These gale to near gale force winds across Tehuantepec may persist through the remainder weekend, with seas building to 16 ft. Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo where moderate to fresh northwest winds are expected today through Thu evening associated with the cold front in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will prevail mainly between the monsoon trough and N of the Galapagos Islands through the forecast period. Seas are expected to remain in the 5-6 ft range, increasing to 7 ft late in the week due to NW waves spreading into the area from the next Tehuantepec gap wind event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure N of the area extends a broad ridge southward into the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the monsoon and the ITCZ will support the continuation of moderate to locally fresh NE winds over a belt approximately from 10N to 20N W of 115W. Seas are generally 6-8 ft across this region in a broad mix of swell and easterly tradewind waves. Little change is expected in these conditions today before shifting W of 140W late on Wed. $$ Stripling