000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong autumn cold front will sweep southeastward across northern Mexico and the Gulf of California Sun night into Mon, and bring strong westerly gap winds ahead of the front across north and central portions of the Gulf Sun afternoon through Mon, becoming strong northerly winds behind the front, which will spread southward across the Gulf Mon night and Tue. Gale force winds are expected over the far northern Gulf of California Mon afternoon through Mon night. These winds will diminish to near gale force speeds early on Tue diminishing to strong speeds into Tue afternoon. Seas will become very rough over the northern Gulf of California Mon afternoon through late Mon night, with wave heights possibly reaching 13 or 14 ft before subsiding to around 8 ft Tue afternoon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 123W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm east of the wave from 10N to 15N. Isolated weak showers are within 60 nm west of the wave from 13N to 17N. A tropical wave has its axis along 139W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated small weak showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 10N to 14N and within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 10N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the southwestern Caribbean Sea near 12N76W, southwestward to across northern Panama, then northwestward to 12N89W and westward from there to 11N100W to 12N110W to 10N116W and to just east of a tropical wave near 09N122W. Latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins just west of the same tropical wave near 09N124W and continues to 11N132W to 13N137W and to beyond the area at 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 08N between 78W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 95W-105W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 86W-89W and also between 90W-92W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming gale event in the northern Gulf of California. Latest scatterometer data shows gentle northwest to north winds offshore Baja California, while gentle north to northeast winds are offshore mainland Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for 6-8 ft seas from north swell are present west of Baja California Norte. Winds over the Gulf of Tehunatepec have become north at 20-30 kt as of this morning. These gap winds will diminish to 20-25 kt on late Sun morning or early afternoon, then diminish to fresh speeds in the afternoon and to moderate to fresh speeds Sun evening and change little through Mon. Seas with these winds will build to 7-10 ft late tonight into Sun, then subside to 8 ft early Sun and to less than 8 ft Sun afternoon. Winds will remain light to gentle west of Mexico for the next few days, with little change in seas. The swell west of Baja California Norte will gradually subside through Sun as the swell group shifts westward away from the offshore waters. A strong cold front will move across northern Mexico and the Gulf of California Sun night into Mon. Related impacts are described above under the Special Features section. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate south to southwest winds will continue over the southern waters through Mon, then increase late Mon. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 5-7 ft due in south to southwest swell.Gentle to moderate onshore flow is expected west of Central America through Sun night, becoming light and variable on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure centered well north of the region near 40N141W extends a broad ridge southward into the discussion area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the monsoon trough region is allowing for moderate to fresh trades over an area roughly from 16N to 20N between 129W-132W, and from 17N to 20N between 132W and 140W. These conditions will slowly diminish as they shift westward through Mon. $$ Aguirre