000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241536 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 122W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm east of the wave from 10N to 15N. Isolated weak showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave from 15N to 17N. A tropical wave has its axis along 138W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated weak showers are within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 10N to 13N and within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 10N to 15N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the southwestern Caribbean Sea near 11N76W, southwestward to 08N81W, then northwestward to 12N88W and westward from there to 11N100W to 13N108W to 10N116W and to just west of a tropical wave near 09N121W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and continues to 12N131W to just west of a tropical wave near 13N137W. It resumes at 13N138W to beyond the area at 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 08N between 78W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 95W-98W and within 30 nm of the trough between 100W-107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight scatterometer data showed gentle northwest to north winds offshore Baja California, while gentle north to northeast winds are offshore mainland Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for 6-8 ft seas from north swell are present west of Baja California Norte. Light north winds are over the Gulf of Tehunatepec, but are expected to quickly become north at 20-30 kt soon this morning. Winds will remain light to gentle west of Mexico for the next few days, with little change in seas. The swell west of Baja California Norte will gradually subside through Sun as the swell group shifts westward away from the offshore waters. A strong cold front will move across northern Mexico and the Gulf of California Sun night into Mon, and bring strong westerly gap winds ahead of the front across north and central portions of the Gulf Sun afternoon through Mon, becoming strong northerly winds behind the front, which will spread southward across the Gulf Mon night and Tue. Gale force winds are possible in the northern Gulf of California Mon afternoon through Mon night. Seas will build over the northern Gulf of California late Sun to possibly 14 ft Mon night before subsiding to around 8 ft Tue afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate south to southwest winds will continue over the southern waters through Mon, then increase late Mon. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 5-7 ft due in south to southwest swell.Gentle to moderate onshore flow is expected west of Central America through Sun night, becoming light and variable on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure centered well north of the region near 40N141W extends a broad ridge southward into the discussion area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the monsoon trough region is allowing for moderate to fresh trades over an area roughly from 15N to 21N between 124W-132W, and from 13N to 18N between 132W and 140W. Expect little change in these conditions through the rest of the weekend. $$ Aguirre