000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis analyzed along 115W from 01N to 17N. Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the wave axis near 08N. This system is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the low in NW quadrant. This system is moving westward at 15 kt A tropical wave has its axis along 132W from 05N to 18N. It is moving westward at 16 kt. Only isolated rather weak showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 10N to 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1008 mb along the coast of Colombia near 11N75W to 08N78W to 10N90W to 12N96W to 10N108W to low pressure of 1009 mb near 08N115W, then northwestward to 14N124W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 14N129W and to 12N134W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond the area at 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 77W-80W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 80W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 92W-97W and also between 135W-139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight scatterometer data showed mainly gentle northwest to north winds offshore Baja California, while gentle north to northeast winds are offshore mainland Mexico. Seas over these waters are in the 4-7 ft range, except for higher seas, in the 6-8 ft range, due to a northwest swell are present west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate north winds are over the Gulf of Tehunatepec. These winds will become light to gentle variable winds this afternoon. Winds will remain light to gentle west of Mexico for the next few days, with little change in seas. The northwest swell west of Baja California Norte will gradually subside through Sun as the culprit swell group propagates westward away from the offshore waters. Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to quickly become north at 20-30 kt early on Sat as a strong cold front moves across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California Sun night into Mon. This will bring strong westerly gap winds ahead of the front across north and central portions of the Gulf Sun afternoon through Mon, becoming strong northerly winds behind the front, which will spread southward across the Gulf Mon night and Tue. Seas may build to near or at 8 ft over the northern Gulf of California late Sun and to possibly 10 ft there late on Mon night before subsiding to around 7 or 8 ft on Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south to southwest winds will continue over the southern waters through Mon. Gentle to moderate onshore flow is expected west of Central America through late Sun. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 6 to 7 feet in S to SW swell. SW winds are expected to strengthen early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1030 mb center well north of the region near 39N140W extends a broad ridge southward into the discussion area. A rather tight pressure gradient between this ridge and significantly lower pressure associated to the monsoon trough region is allowing for moderate to fresh trades from 13N to 20N between 120W and 140W. Seas produced by these trades are in the range of 6-7 ft. Expect little change in these conditions through the weekend. $$ Aguirre