000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 114W south of 16N, moving west
at 15 kt. Isolated convection is noted in the vicinity of the 
wave axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 131W south of 19N, moving W at
15 kt. Isolated convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave 
axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N77W to 08N88W to 11N97W
to 1009 mb low pres near 10N104W to 10N117W to 1009 mb low pres 
near 13N125W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 13N between 99W and 111W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 132W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure across the NE Pacific has shifted westward, and 
scatterometer data shows mainly gentle NW winds west of Baja 
California and the mainland of Mexico. Northerly winds are 
evident downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and are being 
enhanced by large scale flow into the low centered near 11N97W. 
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft.

Winds will remain light to gentle west of Mexico the next few 
days with little change in seas. Northerly swell associated with
strong winds west of California will increase seas west of Baja 
California Norte to 5-8 ft today. Northerly winds are expected to
diminish later today in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then intensify
to 20-30 kt this weekend. 

Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move across northern 
Mexico and much of the Gulf of California Sun night into Mon. 
This will bring strong westerly gap winds ahead of the front 
across north and central portions of the Gulf Sun afternoon 
through Mon, becoming strong northerly winds behind the front, 
which will spread southward across the Gulf Mon night and Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate S to SW winds will prevail over the southern waters 
through Mon. Gentle to moderate onshore flow is expected west of 
Central America through late Sun. Seas south of Costa Rica and 
Panama are 6 to 7 feet in S to SW swell. SW winds are expected 
to strengthen early next week.

Broad low pressure across the western Caribbean has begun to 
shift NW across the Yucatan into Central America with decreased 
convection. Numerous showers are expected in Central America 
through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure well north of the region extends a broad ridge 
southward into the discussion area, and is supporting moderate 
to fresh trade winds from 13N to 20N between 120W and 140W. Seas 
are generally 6-7 ft across this zone. Expect little change in 
this pattern through the end of the week.

$$
Mundell