000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 113W south of 16N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis between 06N and 12N. A tropical wave is analyzed along 129W south of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis between 09N and 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N80W to 1010 mb low pres near 11N97W to 09N103W to 1010 mb low pres near 09N111W to 12N123W to 11N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 100W and 119W, and from 07N to 12N west of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure across the NE Pacific has shifted westward, and scatterometer data shows mainly gentle NW winds west of Baja California and the mainland of Mexico. Northerly winds are evident downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and are being enhanced by large scale flow into the low centered near 11N97W. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Winds will remain light to gentle through the end of the week west of Mexico the next few days with little change in sea heights. Northerly swell associated with strong N winds west of California will increase seas west of Baja California Norte to 5- 8 ft tonight and Fri. Northerly winds are expected to diminish on Fri in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then re-intensify to 20-30 kt this weekend. Looking ahead, the a strong cold front will move across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California Sun night into Mon. This will bring strong westerly gap winds ahead of the front across north and central portions of the Gulf Sun afternoon through Mon, becoming strong northerly winds behind the front, which will spread southward across the Gulf Mon night and Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds will prevail over the southern waters through Mon. Gentle to moderate onshore flow is expected west of Central America through late Sun. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 6 to 7 feet in S to SW swell. SW winds are expected to strengthen early next week. Broad low pressure across the western Caribbean has begun to shift NW across the Yucatan into Central America with decreased convection. Numerous showers are expected in Central America through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well north of the region extends a broad ridge southward into the discussion area, and is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 13N to 20N between 120W and 140W. Seas are generally 6-7 ft across this zone. Expect little change in this pattern through the end of the week. $$ Mundell