000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 111W from 00N to 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 127W from 01N to 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. An associated 1008 mb low pressure center is located near 16N123W and moving in tandem with the wave. Associated convection is described below with the low and also near the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Monsoon trough axis extends from 1008 mb north of Colombia in the Caribbean Sea near 12N75W to 1010 mb low press near 10N97W to 1010 mb low press near 08N100W to 1007 mb low press near 16N123W to 10N130W. ITCZ begins from 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 08N11W to 103W-109W, from 06N-11N between 113W-116W, from 07N- 13N between 132W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The strong high pressure ridge across the NE Pacific has shifted westward of 124W. The resultant pressure gradient between the ridge to the west and the trough along the Baja California Peninsula has relaxed, and is supporting gentle N to NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, except for moderate winds surrounding Baja California Sur from 24N to Cabo San Lucas. Light to moderate southerly winds have developed across the Gulf of California. Farther south, except for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle NW winds persist. Seas offshore of Baja are generally in the 5 to 6 ft range in mixed N and SW swell, 4 to 6 ft south of Cabo San Lucas, and 3 ft or less across all but the mouth of the Gulf of California. Winds will remain light to gentle through the end of the week across the offshore Baja California waters with seas remaining 5-6 ft through Fri. However, gale force northerly winds offshore of northern California will push new N swell across the outer waters tonight through Fri and raise seas across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte to 6-9 ft tonight and through the weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec: N winds are expected to remain near 20 to 25 kt across the Gulf north of 13N through this evening, and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a relatively narrow plume. Nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt will return into the weekend. Looking ahead, the first strong cold front of the season will move across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California Sun night into Mon. This will bring strong westerly gap winds across north and central portions of the Gulf Sun afternoon through Mon, before strong northerly winds begin to spread southward across the basin Mon night and Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough to near the equator, east of the Galapagos Islands. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 6 to 9 feet in mixed SW swell. These conditions will continue with little change before long period SW swell fades across the region tonight, and seas fall below 8 ft. The SW winds are expected to freshen again into the weekend. Broad low pressure across the southwest Caribbean has begun to shift NW across the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel with less convection noted over the region. Associated weather across the waters of Panama and Costa Rica, has shifted northward and is expected to affect Nicaragua and Central America through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1033 mb high pressure near 42N134W extends a broad ridge S into the discussion area and then SE to near 21N124W, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from roughly south to 20N and east of 139W. Seas are generally 6-8 ft across this zone. Expect little change in this pattern through the end of the week. Low pressure of 1008 mb along the monsoon trough near 16N123W follows a tropical wave along 127W. This low will shift WNW over the next several days and move south of the ridge. As this occurs, the pressure gradient across the NW semicircle of the low will produce a zone of winds around 20 kt, and occasionally to 25 kt, with seas building to 8 ft Sat through Sun. $$ Torres