000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 106/107W from 05N to 14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is analyzed along 124W/125W from 07N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. An associated 1009 mb low pressure center is located near 15N120W and moving in tandem with the wave. Associated convection is described below with the low and also near the ITCZ. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N73W to 11N90W to low pres 1009 mb near 09N102W to low pres 1009 mb near 15N120W to 13N124W. The ITCZ continues from 11N128W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 12.5N between 98W- 113W, and from 08N-14N west of 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The strong high pressure ridge across the NE Pacific has shifted westward of 120W today. The resultant pressure gradient between the ridge to the west of Baja California and a trough along the Gulf of Baja California has relaxed, and is supporting light to gentle NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Farther south, including the Gulf of California, except for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle breezes persist. Seas offshore of Baja are generally in the 5 to 6 ft range in mixed N and SW swell, 5-6 ft south of Cabo San Lucas, and 3 ft or less across all but the mouth of the Gulf of California. Winds will diminish slightly offshore of Baja California on Thu as the ridge shifts further westward. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and seas 5 ft or less will persist elsewhere. Winds will remain light to gentle through the end of the week across the offshore Baja California waters with seas remaining 5-6 ft Thu and Fri. However, strong northerly winds offshore of southern California will push new N swell across the outer waters tonight through the Fri and raise seas across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte to 6-9 ft by Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh N winds are expected to remain near 20 to 25 kt across the Gulf north of 15N through Thu, and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a relatively narrow plume. Nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt will return into the weekend. Looking ahead, the first strong cold front of the season will move across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California Sun night through Mon. This will bring strong westerly gap winds across north and central portions of the Gulf late Sun through Mon evening, before strong northerly winds begin to spread southward across the basin Mon night and Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough to near the equator, east of the Galapagos Islands. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 6 to 7 feet in mixed SW swell. These conditions will continue with little change overnight before winds subside slightly and long period SW swell begins to slowly fade across the region through Thu. The SW winds are expected to freshen again Fri into the weekend. Broad low pressure across the southwest Caribbean has begun to shift NW across the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel. Associated weather across the waters of Panama and Costa Rica, ahas also shifted northward and is expected to affect Nicaragua and Central America overnight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high pressure near 46N136W extends a broad ridge S into the discussion area and then SE to near 17N120W, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from roughly 12N to 27N mainly east of 122W. Seas are generally 6-8 ft across this zone. Expect little change in this pattern through the end of the week. Low pressure of 1009 mb along the monsoon trough near 15N120W follows a tropical wave along 124W/125W. This low will shift WNW over the next several days and move south of the ridge. As this occurs, the pressure gradient across the N semicircle of the low will produce a zone of winds around 20 kt, and occasionally to 25 kt, with seas building to 8-9 ft by Fri. $$ Stripling