000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210942 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 92W from 10N north into the Gulf of Mexico, drifting W. Associated convection is limited and over Central America. This wave is becoming increasingly more difficult to identify and appears to be becoming absorbed in the broad cyclonic circulation across Central America, the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave is analyzed along 122W from 08N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. An associated 1009 mb low pressure center is located near 14N118.5W and moving in tandem with the wave. Scattered moderate to strong convection it noted within 180 nm SW and 120 nm NW semicircles. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 11N80W to low pres 1009 mb near 09.5N86W to low pres 1009 mb near 12.5N93.5W to low pres 1009 mb near 10N106W to low pres 1009 mb near 14N118.5W to 11N132W. The ITCZ continues from 11N132W to beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 81W and 87W, and from 13.5N to 17.5N between 97W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09n TO 15n BETWEEN 88W and 94W, from 07N to 10N between 99W and 108W, and from 08N to 14.5N between 127W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge to the west of Baja California and a trough along the slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidentales is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of northern and central Baja California extending south to 25N. Farther south, including the Gulf of California, except for a small area of fresh winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes persist. Seas offshore of Baja are generally in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed N and SW swell, 5-6 ft south of Cabo San Lucas, and 3 ft or less across all but the mouth of the Gulf of California. Winds will diminish modestly overnight offshore of Baja California as the ridge shifts westward, with seas subsiding by a foot or so through Wed evening. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and seas 5 ft or less will persist elsewhere. Winds will diminish further through the end of the week across the offshore Baja water with seas subsiding to 4 to 6 ft by Wed afternoon. However, strong northerly winds offshore of southern California will push new N swell across the outer waters Wed night through the end of the week and raise seas across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte to 6-8 ft by Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to remain near 20 kt for the next few days with nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt each late night and early morning through Thu, and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a relatively narrow plume. Seas will peak each early morning at 7-8 ft. Looking ahead, the first strong cold front of the season will move across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California Sun night through Mon. This will bring strong westerly gap winds across north and central portions of the Gulf Sun afternoon through Mon evening, before strong northerly winds begin to spread southward across the basin Mon night and Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and 09N, east of 92W. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 7 to 8 feet in mixed SW swell. These conditions will continue with little change overnight before winds subside slightly and long period SW swell begins to slowly fade across the region Wed afternoon through Thu. Broad low pressure across the southwest Caribbean is aiding in producing this area of fresh winds south of Panama and Costa Rica, and is also helping to produce an active weather across these eastern waters and Central America east of 92W. This active weather is expected to continue through tonight before beginning to shift northward over land and diminish over water as elongated low pressure across the western Caribbean lifts NW into the southern Gulf of Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1030 mb high pressure near 42N142W extends a ridge SE to near 19N116W, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from roughly 13N to 25N mainly west of 122W. Seas are generally 6-8 ft across this zone. Expect little change in this pattern through Fri. Low pressure of 1009 mb along the monsoon trough near 14N118.5W follows a tropical wave along 122W. Convection associated with the low has increased overnight, with scattered moderate to strong occurring within 180 nm SW and 120 nm NW semicircles. This low will shift WNW over the next several days, and move south of the ridge. As this occurs, the pressure gradient across the N semicircle of the low will produce a zone of winds around 20 kt, and occasionally to 25 kt, with seas to 8 ft. $$ Stripling