000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210332 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 91W from 12N north into the Gulf of Mexico, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is limited and over Central America. A tropical wave axis extends along 120W was reposition to 119W from 08N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pres 1006 mb near 12N81W to low pres 1009 mb near 09N86W to low pres 1009 mb near 14N94W to low pres 1009 mb near 10N101W to low pres 1009 mb near 13N116W to 11N135W. The ITCZ continues from 11N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 81W and 87W, and from 12N to 15N between 117W and 124W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 12N between 100W and 109W, and from 07.5N to 11N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge to the west of Baja California and a 1004 mb low pressure over southern California is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of northern and central Baja California. Farther south, including the Gulf of California, except for a small area of fresh winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes persist. Seas are generally in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed N and SW swell, and 3 ft or less across all but the mouth of the Gulf of California. Winds will diminish modestly overnight offshore of Baja California as the ridge shifts westward, with seas subsiding by a foot or so. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and seas 5 ft or less will persist elsewhere. Winds will diminish further through the end of the week across the offshore Baja water with seas subsiding to 4 to 6 ft by Wed afternoon. However, strong northerly winds offshore of southern California will push new N swell across the outer waters Wed night through the end of the week and raise seas across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte to 6-8 ft on Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to remain near 20 kt for the next few days with nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt each late night and early morning through Thu, and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a relatively narrow plume. Seas will peak each early morning at 7-8 ft. Looking ahead, the first strong cold front of the season will move across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California Sun night through Mon. This will bring strong northerly winds spreading across the northern half of the Gulf Mon, with gale force wind gusts. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, east of 97W. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 7 to 8 feet in mixed SW swell. These conditions will continue with little change overnight before winds subside slightly and long period SW swell begins to slowly fade across the region Wed afternoon through Thu. Broad low pressure across the southwest Caribbean is aiding in producing this area of fresh winds south of Panama and Costa Rica, and is also helping to produce an active weather across these eastern waters and Central America east of 88W. This active weather is expected to continue through tonight before beginning to diminish as the low pressure across the western Caribbean lifts NW towards the Gulf of Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure near 42N142W extends a ridge SE to near 20N116W, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from roughly 14N to 25N mainly west of 121W. Seas are generally 6-8 ft across this zone. Expect little change in this pattern through Fri. $$ Stripling