000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 88W from 05N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are in noted from 05N-12N between 87W to 91W. A tropical wave axis extends along 120W was reposition to 119W from 06N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted east of the wave from 11N-18N between 115W-123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N81W across Costa Rica to a 1008 mb low pres near 10.3N100W to 11N115W, then resumes west of the trough near 12N121W to 09N135W. The ITCZ continues from 09N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near the coast of Costa Rica and from 10N to 14N between 90W and 98W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge to the west of Baja California and a 1009 mb low pressure over southern California is supporting moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of northern and central Baja California. Farther south, including the Gulf of California, except for a small area of fresh winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes persist. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range in mixed N and SW swell, and 3 ft or less across all but the mouth of the Gulf of California. Winds will remain fresh through tonight offshore the Baja California peninsula as low pressure deepens over the SW U.S. Locally strong winds are expected within 120 nm of Baja California Norte and near Punta Eugenia through Tue evening, with seas of 6-7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and seas 5 ft or less will persist elsewhere. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to remain near 20 kt for the next few days with nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt each late night and early morning through Thu, and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a relatively narrow plume. Seas will peak each early morning at 7-9 ft. Looking ahead, the first strong cold front of the season will move across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California Sun night through Mon. This will bring strong northerly winds spreading across the northern half of the Gulf Mon, with gale force wind gusts. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, east of 97W. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 6 to 8 feet in mixed SW swell. These conditions will continue with little change through Thu before winds subside slightly and long period SW swell begins to slowly fade across the region. Broad low pressure across the southwest Caribbean is aiding in producing an area of fresh winds south of Panama and Costa Rica, and is also helping to produce an active weather across these eastern waters east of 88W. This active weather is expected to continue through tonight before beginning to diminish as the low pressure across the western Caribbean lifts NW towards the Gulf of Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1030 mb high pressure near 42N141W extends its ridge SE to near 20N122W, and is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from roughly 14N to 30N mainly west of 120W. Seas are generally 5-7 ft across this zone. Expect little change in this pattern through Fri. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of a surface trough near 27N139W to 29N137W. This trough will drift NW during the next few days, with weather improving in its wake. Farther east, seas will remain 7-8 ft near and south of the monsoon trough between 108W and 120W, due in part to moderate SW winds south of the monsoon trough and longer period SW swell moving through the area. Look for both winds and seas to diminish slightly across this area by late Tue afternoon. Winds will freshen Thu through Sat to the west of 130W, with seas building 7-8 ft. $$ Torres