000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 120W-121W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N81W to 10N85W to 13N93W to low pres 1008 mb near 10.5N101W to 12N122W to 09N136W, then transitions to ITCZ continuing on beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 83W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 100W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge to the west of Baja California and lower pressure over southern California is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of northern and central Baja California. Farther south, including the Gulf of California, except for a small area of strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes persist. Seas are generally in the 4 to 7 ft range in mixed N and SW swell, and 3 ft or less across all but the mouth of the Gulf of California. Winds will remain fresh through Tue night offshore the Baja California peninsula as low pressure deepens over the SW U.S. Locally strong winds are expected within 120 nm of Baja California Norte and near Punta Eugenia through Tue evening, with seas of 6-7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and seas 5 ft or less will persist elsewhere. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to remain northerly near 20 kt for the next few days with nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt each late night and early morning through Wed, and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a relatively narrow plume. Seas will peak each early morning at 7-9 ft. Looking ahead, the first strong cold front of the season will move across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California Sun night through Mon. This will bring strong northerly winds spreading across the northern half of the Gulf on Mon, with gale force wind gusts. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, along about 09N-10N, and east of 97W. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 7 to 9 feet in mixed SW swell. These conditions will continue with little change through Wed before winds subside slightly and long period SW swell begins to slowly fade across the region. Broad low pressure across the western Caribbean is aiding in producing the area of fresh winds south of Panama and Costa Rica, and is also helping to produce very active weather across these eastern waters east of 94W. This active weather is expected to continue through Tue night before beginning to diminish as the low pressure across the western Caribbean lifts NW towards the Gulf of Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1030 mb high pressure near 36N141W extends a ridge SE to near 19N117W, and is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from roughly 13N to 25N mainly west of 125W. Seas are generally 6-7 ft across this zone. Expect little change in this pattern through Wed. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N to 28N between 132W and 137W, to the southeast of a deep layered upper trough extending across the NW corner of the discussion area. This trough will drift NW during the next few days, with weather improving in its wake. Farther east, seas will remain 7-8 ft near the monsoon trough between 108W and 120W, due in part to moderate SW winds south of the monsoon trough and longer period SW swell moving through the area. Look for both winds and seas to diminish slightly across this area by late Tue afternoon. Winds will freshen Thu through Sat to the west of 130W, with seas building 7-8 ft. $$ Stripling