000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191520
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends along 118/119W from 03N to 16N, 
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 09N81W to 
13N93W to 10N103W to 10N129W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N east of 
93W, and from 08N to 15.5N between 110W and 131W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted from 07N to 13.5N between 
98.5W and 105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja California near
31N130W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
lower pressure over southern California is supporting moderate 
to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of northern and 
central Baja California from Punta Eugenia northward. Farther 
south, with exception of a small area of strong winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes persist. Seas are
generally in the 4 to 7 ft range in mixed N and SW swell.

Winds will remain fresh through Tue night offshore the Baja
California peninsula as low pressure deepens over the SW U.S. 
Locally strong winds are expected within 120 nm of Baja 
California Norte and near Punta Eugenia today through Tue, where
seas will build to 7-8 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and
seas 5 ft or less will persist elsewhere. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are 
expected to remain northerly for the next few days and return to 
the nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt each late night and early 
morning, and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a relatively 
narrow plume. Presently strong northerly winds extend only about 
120 nm offshore with seas 7-9 ft. This pattern is expected to 
persist through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough
along about 09N-10N and east of 95W. Seas south of Costa Rica and
Panama are 7 to 9 feet in SW swell. This magnitude of swell will
persist through Tue before subsiding. Farther north off the coast
of Central America, seas are 5 to 7 feet.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A deep layer trough along 136W-138W S of 25N extends south to a 
surface low of 1011 mb near 19N139W. Scattered moderate 
convection is presently occurring from 18N to 24N between 136W 
and 140W. This low will move W of the region later today. High 
pressure will then build north of 20N, supporting fresh trade 
winds early this week from roughly 15N to 25N mainly west of 
125W.

Farther east, seas will remain near 8 ft today near the monsoon 
trough between 110W and 118W, due in part to moderate SW winds 
south of the monsoon trough and new longer period SW swell moving
into the area.

$$
Hagen