000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190935
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends along 116W-117W from 05N to 17N, 
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near 10.5N77W to 09N84W to 
12.5N94W to 10.5N112W to 12N137W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 13.5N east of 91.5W, and from 
08N to 15.5N between 98W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja California near
31N127W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
lower pressure over the Sonoran desert is supporting moderate to 
fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of northern and central
Baja California from Punta Eugenia northward. Farther south, 
with exception of a small area of strong winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes persist. Seas are 
generally in the 4 to 7 ft range in mixed N and SW swell.

These winds across the offshore waters of Baja California will 
freshen slightly through Tue night as low pressure deepens over
the SW U.S. Locally strong winds are expected within 120 nm of
Baja California Norte and near Punta Eugenia Mon through Tue,
where seas will build to 7-8 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate 
breezes and seas 5 ft or less will persist elsewhere. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong high pressure dominating the Gulf of
Mexico for the past few days continues to shift slowly NE with 
associated ridging weakening across the SW Gulf. This has 
significantly weakened the forcing of northerly gap winds through
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
during the past 24 hours. Winds across Tehuantepec are expected 
to remain northerly for the next few days and return to the 
nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt each late night and early morning, 
and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a relatively narrow plume. 
Presently strong northerly winds extend only about 120 nm 
offshore with seas 7-8 ft. This pattern is expected to persist 
through Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough
along about 09N-10N and east of 95W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft 
primarily in SW swell. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds and 
seas building 7 to 9 ft in SW swell south of Costa Rica and 
Panama Mon through Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A deep layer trough along 136W-138W S of 25N extends south to a 
surface low of 1012 mb near 18N139W. Scattered moderate convection
is presently occurring from 16N to 23.5N between 133.5W and 
140W. This low and associated trough will weaken as it moves NW 
tonight, then will move W of the region Mon. High pressure will 
then build north of 20N, supporting fresh trade winds early this 
week from roughly 15N to 25N mainly west of 125W.

Farther east, seas will will remain near 8 ft tonight through Mon 
near the monsoon trough between 110W and 118W, due in part to 
moderate SW winds south of the monsoon trough and new longer 
period SW swell moving into the area.

$$ 
Stripling