000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181517 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 114W from 03N to 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 108W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 09N78W to 12N95W to 10N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near 16N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N E of 86W and from 07N to 15N between 94W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 21N between 121W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure building across the Gulf of Mexico continues to force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are expected to persist around 30 kt into tonight, with strong winds prevailing through Mon. Peak seas are currently 9 to 11 feet. These seas will only gradually subside, but remain above 8 ft into early week. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja California near 26N126W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over the Sonoran desert is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of northern and central Baja California from Punta Eugenia northward. Farther south, with exception of strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes persist. Seas are generally in the 4 to 7 ft range in mixed N and SW swell. Winds west of Baja California will diminish tonight, but winds and seas will increase off Baja California Norte Mon and Tue as high pressure strengthens and low pressure deepens over the southwest U.S. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas will persist elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough along about 10N-11N and east of 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in SW swell. Building high pressure north of the region will support pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo and southern Nicaragua tonight. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds and seas building to 9 ft in SW swell south of Panama on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tropical wave axis previously analyzed along 138W has become absorbed in a quasi-stationary deep layered trough across that region, extending NNE to SSW. An associated 1010 mb low pressure center is near 16N135W and is weakening. The 1010 mb surface low will continue to weaken and move NW through tonight, then move west of the region by Mon. High pressure will then build north of 20N, supporting fresh trade winds early next week from roughly 15N to 25N mainly west of 125W. Farther east, seas will build to 8 ft into Mon near the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W, due in part to fresh northerly swell emerging out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and new longer period SW swell moving into the area. $$ KONARIK