000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171958 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building into the western Gulf of Mexico is forcing northerly gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds should persist through tonight before diminish to strong for Sun and Sun night. Seas downwind are 11 to 13 feet. Seas should fall below 12 ft tonight, but remain above 8 ft through early next week. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 109W from 01N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 102W and 114W. A tropical wave axis is near 137W from 04N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Associated 1009 mb low pressure is near 13N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 17N between 125W and 137W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 10N77W to 11N101W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 81W and from 06N to 15N between 91W and 101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1018 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja California near 25N123W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over the Sonoran desert is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of northern and central Baja California. Farther south, with exception of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes persist. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Winds west of Baja California will diminish some Sun, but winds and seas will increase off Baja California Norte by early next week as high pressure strengthens and low pressure deepens over the southwest U.S. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas will persist elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate easterly trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and west of 90W, with moderate to fresh SW winds farther south from Ecuador to Costa Rica. Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in SW swell. The pressure gradient is subtly tightening across the southwest Caribbean, southern Central America and the tropical eastern Pacific as high pressure builds north of the area. This is supporting moderate to fresh gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo and off southern Nicaragua. Meanwhile, SW winds will increase slightly off Panama as pressure lowers over the southwest Caribbean. These increased winds will coincide with the arrival of new longer period SW swell into the waters off Central America, allowing combined seas to reach 8 ft south of Panama by Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tropical wave is along 136W with a surface trough extending northward from it to around 25N. A surface low is located in association with the wave near 13N134W. All these features will weaken and move west through Sun, then move west of the region by Mon. High pressure will then build north of 20N, supporting fresh trade winds early next week from roughly 15N to 25N mainly west of 125W. Farther east, seas may approach 8 ft into Mon near the monsoon trough east of 110W, due in part to fresh northerly swell emerging out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and new longer period SW swell moving into the area. $$ KONARIK