000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160903 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N to NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri morning, as NE winds increase across the SW Gulf of Mexico ahead of a cold front. Winds across Tehuantepec will increase to gale force Fri evening through Sat night, then diminish to fresh to strong through early next week. Seas should peak with this gale event at near 15 ft Sat morning and remain at 8 ft or higher through at least Tue. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 98W from 02N to 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave axis is near 119W from 01N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave axis is near 129W from 03N to 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 10.5N73W to 08N95W to 13N126W to 11N130W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10.5N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08.5N between 88W and 99W, from 11N to 17N between 86W and 103W, and from 11N to 16N between 121W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remnants of Norbert remain a shallow low level cloud field offshore of Punta Eugenia, and area analyzed as a surface trough. Convection has completely disappeared, and maximum sustained winds have decreased to 10 kt or less. Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring offshore most of SW Mexico, from Cabo Corrientes up through the central Gulf of California and offshore Baja California Sur, as indicated by recent scatterometer data. These winds will spread northward to the waters off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while diminishing elsewhere. Seas should remain just below 8 ft with these winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region Fri night and Sat night. Moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next couple of days becoming fresh Sun through Tue. Mainly moderate long-period S swell will prevail across the waters through the weekend, and maintain seas of 5-7 ft. Seas will build in southerly swell Sun night through Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common in the Central American zones due to the proximity of the monsoon trough for at least the next couple of days as is described above. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure well N of the discussion area and low pressure along the ITCZ, and is producing generally moderate to fresh E trades west of 125W. Troughing forecast to develop west of Baja California should weaken the trades slightly Fri through Sun, with the winds returning by the end of the weekend into early next week. Northerly swell is moving across the northern waters N of 25N and west of 120W tonight, producing seas of 7-9 ft. These conditions will shift gradually westward into the weekend. Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area on both sides of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in S swell dominates the remainder of the waters. $$ Stripling