000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N to NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri morning, increasing to gale force Fri evening through Sat night, then will be fresh to strong thereafter. Seas should peak with this gale event near 15 ft late Fri night and Sat morning and remain at least 8 ft through at least Tue. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 97W from 02N northward to 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring mainly ahead of the wave, from 11N to 17N between 96W and 103W. A tropical wave axis is near 118W from 01N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave axis is near 128W from 03N to 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 10.5N73W to 07.5N92W to 13N127W to 11N130W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10.5N133W to 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is shifting off of land and over the nearshore coastal waters within 150 nm of the coast from NW Costa Rica to 94.5W and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm n of the trough and ITCZ between 118W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remnant low of Norbert is a 1011 mb low near 27N116.5W. Convection has completely disappeared, and maximum sustained winds have decreased to less than 15 kt. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Fri. Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring offshore most of SW Mexico up through the central Gulf of California and offshore Baja California Sur, as indicated by recent scatterometer data. These winds will then spread to off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while diminishing elsewhere. Seas should remain just below 8 ft with these winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will be light to gentle north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region Fri night and Sat night. Moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next couple of days becoming fresh Sun through Tue. Mainly moderate 5 to 7 ft long-period S swell will prevail across the waters through the weekend. Seas will build in southerly swell Sun night through Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common in the Central American zones due to the proximity of the monsoon trough for at least the next couple of days as is described above. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure well N of the discussion waters and low pressure along the ITCZ is producing generally moderate to fresh E trades west of 125W. Troughing forecast to develop west of Baja California should weaken the trades slightly Fri through Sun, with the winds returning by the end of the weekend into early next week. Northerly swell will move across the area north of 25N and west of 120W tonight into the weekend. Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area on both sides of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in S swell dominates the remainder of the waters. $$ Stripling