000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N to NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri morning, increasing to gale force Fri evening through Sat night, then will be fresh to strong thereafter. Seas should peak with this gale event near 15 ft late Fri night and Sat morning and remain at least 8 ft through at least Tue. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 94W/95W from 02N northward to N of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave. A tropical wave axis is near 116W from 01N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present near the wave. A tropical wave axis is near 130W from 03N to 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to where it intersects the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 08N95W to 09N112W to 12.5N123.5W to 10N134W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is offshore of Oaxaca Mexico from 11N-16N between 96W-100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 122W-135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remnant low of Norbert is a 1012 mb low near 26N116W. Convection has completely disappeared, and maximum sustained winds have decreased to less than 15 kt. Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring offshore most of SW Mexico up through the central Gulf of California and offshore Baja California Sur, as indicated by recent scatterometer data. These winds will then spread to off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while diminishing elsewhere. Seas should remain just below 8 ft with these winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will be light to gentle north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region Fri night and Sat night. Moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next couple of days becoming fresh Sun through Tue. Mainly moderate 5 to 7 ft long-period S swell will prevail across the waters through the weekend. Seas will build in southerly swell Sun night through Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common in the Central American zones due to the proximity of the monsoon trough for at least the next couple of days as is described above. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate pressure gradient due to high pressure well N of the discussion waters and low pressure from the ITCZ is producing generally moderate to fresh E trades west of 125W. Troughing to develop west of Baja California should weaken the trades slightly Fri through Sun, with the winds returning by the end of the weekend into early next week. Northerly swell will move across the area north of 25N and west of 120W tonight into the weekend. Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area on both sides of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in S swell dominates the remainder of the waters. $$ Hagen