000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are blowing in the Tehuantepec region per earlier scatterometer data. These winds will briefly diminish this afternoon, then return early Fri morning. The current 8 ft peak seas will subside some through this afternoon. Winds will increase to gale force Fri night through Sat night, then will be fresh to strong thereafter. Seas should peak with this gale event near 15 ft late Fri night and Sat morning and remain at least 8 ft through at least Mon night. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 93W from 02N northward to near Chiapas Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the wave axis from 12N-15N. A tropical wave axis is near 115W/116W from 01N to 17N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is present near the wave. A tropical wave axis is near 129W/130W from 02N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to where it intersects the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 08N94W to 12N115W to 10N134W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N134W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is offshore of Oaxaca Mexico from 11N-15.5N between 95W-99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14W between 123W-134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remnant low of Norbert is a 1011 mb low near 26N116W. Convection has completely disappeared, and maximum sustained winds have decreased to less than 20 kt. Moderate to fresh NW winds have developed offshore of SW Mexico up through the S Gulf of California as indicated by overnight scatterometer data with the strongest winds near Cabo Corrientes. These winds are spreading northwest to the central Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Sur, and will then spread to off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while diminishing elsewhere. Seas should remain just below 8 ft with these winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will be light to gentle north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region Fri night and Sat night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next few days becoming fresh on Sun night. Mainly moderate 5 to 7 ft long- period S swell will prevail across the waters through the weekend. Seas will build in southerly swell Sun night through Mon night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common in the Central American zones due to the proximity of the monsoon trough for at least the next couple of days as is described above. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate pressure gradient due to high pressure well N of the discussion waters and low pressure from the ITCZ is producing generally moderate to fresh E trades west of 125W. Troughing to develop west of Baja California should weaken the trades slightly Fri through Sun, with the winds returning by the end of the weekend into early next week. Lingering mixed swell continues today north of 25N and west of 120W. A reinforcing set of northerly swell will move across this same area tonight into the weekend. Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area on both sides of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in mixed swell dominates the remainder of the waters. $$ Hagen