204 AXPZ20 KNHC 150239 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 25.7N 115.7W at 15/0300 UTC moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are currently around 10 to 11 ft. Norbert will become a post-tropical remnant low by early Thu, then dissipate Thu evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will briefly diminish Thu afternoon, then return early Fri morning. The current 8 ft peak seas will subside some through late Thu. Winds will then increase to gale force Fri night through Sat night, then will be fresh to strong thereafter. Seas should peak with this gale event near 13 ft late Fri night and Sat morning and remain at least 8 ft through at least Mon night. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 90W from 01N northward to near the El Salvador/Guatemala border, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection directly associated with the wave is present. A tropical wave axis is near 111W/112W from 01N to 17N, moving W around 15 kt. No significant convection is present near the wave. A tropical wave axis is near 126W from 02N to 19N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 120W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N90W to 11N110W to 11N127W to 10N129W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N129W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 99W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 86W and 88W, and from 09N to 11N between 136W and 140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection that developed over Central America during the afternoon and evening hours is propagating offshore within 75 nm of the coast between 80W and 93W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Depression Norbert and on the developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh NW winds are developing offshore of SW Mexico up through the S Gulf of California. These winds will spread northwest to the central Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Sur Thu, then to off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while diminishing elsewhere. Seas should remain below 8 ft with these NW winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will be light to gentle north of the monsoon trough laying along 09N/10N, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region Fri night and Sat night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next few days becoming fresh on Sun night. Mainly moderate 5 to 7 ft long-period S swell will prevail across the waters through the weekend. Seas will build in southerly swell Mon and Mon night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common in the Central American zones due to the proximity of the monsoon trough for at least the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate pressure gradient due to high pressure well N of the discussion waters and low pressure from the ITCZ is producing generally moderate to fresh E trades. Troughing to develop west of Baja California should weaken these trades slightly Fri through Sun, with the winds returning by the end of the weekend into early next week. A set of northerly swell continues to reach the area N of 26N, with seas ranging between 6 and 8 ft. This swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters through the next couple of days mainly between 124W and 140W. A reinforcing set of northerly swell will move across the northern waters by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in mixed swell dominates the remainder of the waters. $$ Lewitsky